Recent upward revisions in Brazil’s Focus survey, now placing 2026 IPCA at 4.89–4.91%, reflect persistent price pressures from higher global oil costs tied to Middle East supply risks and a still-tight labor market. With April 2026 inflation printing at 4.39% year-over-year and the Selic rate held at 14.75%, traders see limited near-term disinflation, concentrating market-implied odds on the 5.00–5.99% band. This pricing embeds caution around the 3% target plus 1.5-point tolerance, while acknowledging potential moderation if Copom sustains its measured easing path through upcoming data releases and policy meetings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5.00-5.49% 27.3%
5.50-5.99% 21.3%
4.50~4.99% 19.3%
4.00~4.49% 8.1%
$57,305 Vol.
$57,305 Vol.
3.00%未満
<1%
3.00-3.49%
7%
3.50〜3.99%
2%
4.00~4.49%
8%
4.50~4.99%
19%
5.00-5.49%
30%
5.50-5.99%
21%
6.00〜6.49%
5%
6.50〜6.99%
3%
7.00%以上
12%
5.00-5.49% 27.3%
5.50-5.99% 21.3%
4.50~4.99% 19.3%
4.00~4.49% 8.1%
$57,305 Vol.
$57,305 Vol.
3.00%未満
<1%
3.00-3.49%
7%
3.50〜3.99%
2%
4.00~4.49%
8%
4.50~4.99%
19%
5.00-5.49%
30%
5.50-5.99%
21%
6.00〜6.49%
5%
6.50〜6.99%
3%
7.00%以上
12%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
マーケット開始日: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward revisions in Brazil’s Focus survey, now placing 2026 IPCA at 4.89–4.91%, reflect persistent price pressures from higher global oil costs tied to Middle East supply risks and a still-tight labor market. With April 2026 inflation printing at 4.39% year-over-year and the Selic rate held at 14.75%, traders see limited near-term disinflation, concentrating market-implied odds on the 5.00–5.99% band. This pricing embeds caution around the 3% target plus 1.5-point tolerance, while acknowledging potential moderation if Copom sustains its measured easing path through upcoming data releases and policy meetings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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