The heavily Democratic lean of Georgia’s 4th congressional district, where incumbent Hank Johnson captured 75.6% in 2024, combined with his May 2026 primary victory exceeding 80% against limited challengers, underpins trader expectations of a clear majority for the Democratic nominee in November. With Republican Jim Duffie as the sole major-party opponent and no significant third-party presence indicated, the structure of Georgia’s majority-vote requirement makes an outright win the consensus outcome. Safe-D ratings from forecasters and the absence of competitive polling further align with the 92.5% implied probability for a first-round resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
93% 確率
新規
新規
2026/11/03
はい
93% 確率
新規
新規
2026/11/03
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.The heavily Democratic lean of Georgia’s 4th congressional district, where incumbent Hank Johnson captured 75.6% in 2024, combined with his May 2026 primary victory exceeding 80% against limited challengers, underpins trader expectations of a clear majority for the Democratic nominee in November. With Republican Jim Duffie as the sole major-party opponent and no significant third-party presence indicated, the structure of Georgia’s majority-vote requirement makes an outright win the consensus outcome. Safe-D ratings from forecasters and the absence of competitive polling further align with the 92.5% implied probability for a first-round resolution.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ET
音量
$432終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.The heavily Democratic lean of Georgia’s 4th congressional district, where incumbent Hank Johnson captured 75.6% in 2024, combined with his May 2026 primary victory exceeding 80% against limited challengers, underpins trader expectations of a clear majority for the Democratic nominee in November. With Republican Jim Duffie as the sole major-party opponent and no significant third-party presence indicated, the structure of Georgia’s majority-vote requirement makes an outright win the consensus outcome. Safe-D ratings from forecasters and the absence of competitive polling further align with the 92.5% implied probability for a first-round resolution.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
音量
$432終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The heavily Democratic lean of Georgia’s 4th congressional district, where incumbent Hank Johnson captured 75.6% in 2024, combined with his May 2026 primary victory exceeding 80% against limited challengers, underpins trader expectations of a clear majority for the Democratic nominee in November. With Republican Jim Duffie as the sole major-party opponent and no significant third-party presence indicated, the structure of Georgia’s majority-vote requirement makes an outright win the consensus outcome. Safe-D ratings from forecasters and the absence of competitive polling further align with the 92.5% implied probability for a first-round resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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