Recent polling shows Democrats holding a roughly six-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, a key driver behind trader positioning in the 2026 House popular vote margin market. Mid-decade redistricting in Virginia, which shifted the state map toward Democratic-leaning districts, has further lifted expectations for a modest Democratic advantage. Historical patterns of midterm losses for the president's party also factor into assessments, though structural factors such as limited competitive seats and ongoing state-level map changes introduce uncertainty. These elements explain elevated shares for Democratic margins in the 8-12 percent range alongside the leading "Other" outcome, reflecting the range of plausible results six months before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日民主党 8-10% 15%
民主党 10-12% 13%
共和党 0〜2% 9.6%
共和党 2～4％ 9%
$34,681 Vol.
$34,681 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党 16％以上
2%
民主党 14-16％
3%
民主党 12〜14％
4%
民主党 10-12%
13%
民主党 8-10%
15%
民主党 6～8％
8%
民主党 4-6%
7%
民主党 2-4％
4%
民主党 0～2％
5%
共和党 0〜2%
10%
共和党 2～4％
9%
共和党 4～6％
2%
共和党 6％以上
3%
民主党 8-10% 15%
民主党 10-12% 13%
共和党 0〜2% 9.6%
共和党 2～4％ 9%
$34,681 Vol.
$34,681 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党 16％以上
$804 Vol.
2%
民主党 14-16％
$476 Vol.
3%
民主党 12〜14％
$462 Vol.
4%
民主党 10-12%
$830 Vol.
13%
民主党 8-10%
$1,555 Vol.
15%
民主党 6～8％
$693 Vol.
8%
民主党 4-6%
$258 Vol.
7%
民主党 2-4％
$1,007 Vol.
4%
民主党 0～2％
$889 Vol.
5%
共和党 0〜2%
$864 Vol.
10%
共和党 2～4％
$25,856 Vol.
9%
共和党 4～6％
$230 Vol.
2%
共和党 6％以上
$757 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a roughly six-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, a key driver behind trader positioning in the 2026 House popular vote margin market. Mid-decade redistricting in Virginia, which shifted the state map toward Democratic-leaning districts, has further lifted expectations for a modest Democratic advantage. Historical patterns of midterm losses for the president's party also factor into assessments, though structural factors such as limited competitive seats and ongoing state-level map changes introduce uncertainty. These elements explain elevated shares for Democratic margins in the 8-12 percent range alongside the leading "Other" outcome, reflecting the range of plausible results six months before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$34,681終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a roughly six-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, a key driver behind trader positioning in the 2026 House popular vote margin market. Mid-decade redistricting in Virginia, which shifted the state map toward Democratic-leaning districts, has further lifted expectations for a modest Democratic advantage. Historical patterns of midterm losses for the president's party also factor into assessments, though structural factors such as limited competitive seats and ongoing state-level map changes introduce uncertainty. These elements explain elevated shares for Democratic margins in the 8-12 percent range alongside the leading "Other" outcome, reflecting the range of plausible results six months before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
音量
$34,681終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Democrats holding a roughly six-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, a key driver behind trader positioning in the 2026 House popular vote margin market. Mid-decade redistricting in Virginia, which shifted the state map toward Democratic-leaning districts, has further lifted expectations for a modest Democratic advantage. Historical patterns of midterm losses for the president's party also factor into assessments, though structural factors such as limited competitive seats and ongoing state-level map changes introduce uncertainty. These elements explain elevated shares for Democratic margins in the 8-12 percent range alongside the leading "Other" outcome, reflecting the range of plausible results six months before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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