Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus in the CA-14 special election runoff at 84% implied probability due to her decisive 42.8% finish in the June 16 special primary, more than double Melissa Hernandez’s 16.8% share. As a sitting state senator with prior congressional candidacy experience and the California Democratic Party endorsement, Wahab consolidated support among Democratic voters in the district. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board member, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in the two-candidate August 18 contest. Other listed candidates failed to reach the runoff, leaving a binary race where Wahab’s primary margin and institutional backing shape current pricing ahead of the final vote count.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Aisha Wahab 84%
Melissa Hernandez 14.3%
Carin Elam <1%
Wendy Huang <1%
$24,505 Vol.
$24,505 Vol.
2026/08/18
Aisha Wahab
84%
Melissa Hernandez
14%
Wendy Huang
1%
Carin Elam
1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
Aisha Wahab 84%
Melissa Hernandez 14.3%
Carin Elam <1%
Wendy Huang <1%
$24,505 Vol.
$24,505 Vol.
2026/08/18
Aisha Wahab
$16,272 Vol.
84%
Melissa Hernandez
$2,411 Vol.
14%
Wendy Huang
$1,320 Vol.
1%
Carin Elam
$826 Vol.
1%
Matt Ortega
$1,034 Vol.
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
$1,711 Vol.
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
$930 Vol.
<1%
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus in the CA-14 special election runoff at 84% implied probability due to her decisive 42.8% finish in the June 16 special primary, more than double Melissa Hernandez’s 16.8% share. As a sitting state senator with prior congressional candidacy experience and the California Democratic Party endorsement, Wahab consolidated support among Democratic voters in the district. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board member, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in the two-candidate August 18 contest. Other listed candidates failed to reach the runoff, leaving a binary race where Wahab’s primary margin and institutional backing shape current pricing ahead of the final vote count.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
音量
$24,505終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus in the CA-14 special election runoff at 84% implied probability due to her decisive 42.8% finish in the June 16 special primary, more than double Melissa Hernandez’s 16.8% share. As a sitting state senator with prior congressional candidacy experience and the California Democratic Party endorsement, Wahab consolidated support among Democratic voters in the district. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board member, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in the two-candidate August 18 contest. Other listed candidates failed to reach the runoff, leaving a binary race where Wahab’s primary margin and institutional backing shape current pricing ahead of the final vote count.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
音量
$24,505終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus in the CA-14 special election runoff at 84% implied probability due to her decisive 42.8% finish in the June 16 special primary, more than double Melissa Hernandez’s 16.8% share. As a sitting state senator with prior congressional candidacy experience and the California Democratic Party endorsement, Wahab consolidated support among Democratic voters in the district. Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board member, advanced as the second-place finisher but trails significantly in the two-candidate August 18 contest. Other listed candidates failed to reach the runoff, leaving a binary race where Wahab’s primary margin and institutional backing shape current pricing ahead of the final vote count.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問