Republicans maintain a narrow 218-212 majority in the House with vacancies and one independent member as of mid-August 2026. Trader consensus at 98% against losing control before the November midterms reflects the limited number of scheduled special elections and low historical likelihood of net Democratic flips sufficient to reach the 218-seat threshold in the remaining months. Primary factors include the current seat distribution, retirement announcements concentrated among both parties, and procedural timelines for filling vacancies through state processes. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes involve unexpected resignations or deaths triggering competitive specials in Republican-held districts, though such events remain infrequent and would require rapid Democratic overperformance to alter the balance before election results take effect in January 2027.