Apvienotais saraksts (AS), led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, holds a consistent lead in late September polls ahead of the October 3 Saeima election, driven by voter priorities on security threats from Russia, drone incursions, and strong support for Ukraine. Recent SKDS surveys place AS at 14.4% with a roughly 5-point edge over second-place contenders such as Suverēnā vara/Jaunlatvieši or Latvija pirmajā vietā, while Latvijas Fakti data among decided voters show AS near 24% and a double-digit advantage. Significant undecided voters (around 20-25%), a fragmented field with seven parties likely clearing the 5% threshold, and coalition-building uncertainties contribute to trader expectations of a moderate AS victory margin concentrated in the 5-15% range. Early voting turnout and final campaign dynamics on cost-of-living and minority issues remain key variables.
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