The UAE’s 93% implied probability of remaining in the Gulf Cooperation Council through 2026 reflects sustained institutional continuity despite documented strains with Saudi Arabia. After exiting OPEC in April 2026 amid disputes over production quotas and regional influence, Abu Dhabi officials explicitly stated they were not pursuing further withdrawals from bodies such as the GCC or Arab League. GCC foreign ministers and the secretariat have continued routine coordination on security, trade, and responses to Iranian attacks through mid-2026, with the UAE participating in ministerial meetings and joint statements. Historical patterns of Gulf states managing bilateral tensions without exiting the council, combined with the absence of any formal withdrawal notice or procedural steps, underpin trader consensus that departure remains unlikely before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$100,301 Vol.
$100,301 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$100,301 Vol.
$100,301 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The UAE’s 93% implied probability of remaining in the Gulf Cooperation Council through 2026 reflects sustained institutional continuity despite documented strains with Saudi Arabia. After exiting OPEC in April 2026 amid disputes over production quotas and regional influence, Abu Dhabi officials explicitly stated they were not pursuing further withdrawals from bodies such as the GCC or Arab League. GCC foreign ministers and the secretariat have continued routine coordination on security, trade, and responses to Iranian attacks through mid-2026, with the UAE participating in ministerial meetings and joint statements. Historical patterns of Gulf states managing bilateral tensions without exiting the council, combined with the absence of any formal withdrawal notice or procedural steps, underpin trader consensus that departure remains unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 3:54 PM ET
音量
$100,301終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 3:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The UAE’s 93% implied probability of remaining in the Gulf Cooperation Council through 2026 reflects sustained institutional continuity despite documented strains with Saudi Arabia. After exiting OPEC in April 2026 amid disputes over production quotas and regional influence, Abu Dhabi officials explicitly stated they were not pursuing further withdrawals from bodies such as the GCC or Arab League. GCC foreign ministers and the secretariat have continued routine coordination on security, trade, and responses to Iranian attacks through mid-2026, with the UAE participating in ministerial meetings and joint statements. Historical patterns of Gulf states managing bilateral tensions without exiting the council, combined with the absence of any formal withdrawal notice or procedural steps, underpin trader consensus that departure remains unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$100,301終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 3:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE’s 93% implied probability of remaining in the Gulf Cooperation Council through 2026 reflects sustained institutional continuity despite documented strains with Saudi Arabia. After exiting OPEC in April 2026 amid disputes over production quotas and regional influence, Abu Dhabi officials explicitly stated they were not pursuing further withdrawals from bodies such as the GCC or Arab League. GCC foreign ministers and the secretariat have continued routine coordination on security, trade, and responses to Iranian attacks through mid-2026, with the UAE participating in ministerial meetings and joint statements. Historical patterns of Gulf states managing bilateral tensions without exiting the council, combined with the absence of any formal withdrawal notice or procedural steps, underpin trader consensus that departure remains unlikely before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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