Despite ongoing strategic divergences, including proxy competition in Yemen and differing approaches to influence in Sudan and Somalia, the UAE and Saudi Arabia sustain deep economic interdependence, coordinated energy policies outside OPEC disputes, and shared security interests within the Gulf Cooperation Council framework. These ties, reinforced by joint diplomatic engagement on regional stability and mutual deterrence priorities, underpin the 95.7% trader consensus against severance of diplomatic relations in 2026. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include escalation of border-adjacent clashes or abrupt realignments involving external actors, though such developments would require crossing longstanding thresholds of bilateral restraint.