Trader consensus prices an 87% implied probability against UAE-Saudi Arabia severing diplomatic relations in 2026, driven by deep economic interdependence and shared Gulf Cooperation Council security interests that outweigh policy frictions. The UAE's April 28 exit from OPEC and OPEC+—citing unfair production quotas—exposed a widening rift with Riyadh, compounded by competing influence in Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and differing Israel normalization paces. Yet, bilateral non-oil trade hit $41 billion in 2024 and remains resilient, with no official downgrades or embassy closures. Analysts highlight managed rivalry amid mutual logistics reliance, absent escalation signals in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 87% implied probability against UAE-Saudi Arabia severing diplomatic relations in 2026, driven by deep economic interdependence and shared Gulf Cooperation Council security interests that outweigh policy frictions. The UAE's April 28 exit from OPEC and OPEC+—citing unfair production quotas—exposed a widening rift with Riyadh, compounded by competing influence in Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and differing Israel normalization paces. Yet, bilateral non-oil trade hit $41 billion in 2024 and remains resilient, with no official downgrades or embassy closures. Analysts highlight managed rivalry amid mutual logistics reliance, absent escalation signals in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
音量
$4,634終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 87% implied probability against UAE-Saudi Arabia severing diplomatic relations in 2026, driven by deep economic interdependence and shared Gulf Cooperation Council security interests that outweigh policy frictions. The UAE's April 28 exit from OPEC and OPEC+—citing unfair production quotas—exposed a widening rift with Riyadh, compounded by competing influence in Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and differing Israel normalization paces. Yet, bilateral non-oil trade hit $41 billion in 2024 and remains resilient, with no official downgrades or embassy closures. Analysts highlight managed rivalry amid mutual logistics reliance, absent escalation signals in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$4,634終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 87% implied probability against UAE-Saudi Arabia severing diplomatic relations in 2026, driven by deep economic interdependence and shared Gulf Cooperation Council security interests that outweigh policy frictions. The UAE's April 28 exit from OPEC and OPEC+—citing unfair production quotas—exposed a widening rift with Riyadh, compounded by competing influence in Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and differing Israel normalization paces. Yet, bilateral non-oil trade hit $41 billion in 2024 and remains resilient, with no official downgrades or embassy closures. Analysts highlight managed rivalry amid mutual logistics reliance, absent escalation signals in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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