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icon for 2026年、トランプ大統領の支持率はどの程度になるでしょうか？
政治·トランプ大統領

2026年、トランプ大統領の支持率はどの程度になるでしょうか？

icon for 2026年、トランプ大統領の支持率はどの程度になるでしょうか？
政治·トランプ大統領

2026年、トランプ大統領の支持率はどの程度になるでしょうか？

12月 31

12月 31

新規
2026/12/31
Polymarket

$4,837 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 44%

$2,703 Vol.

9%

↑ 45％

$137 Vol.

10%

↑ 46％

$721 Vol.

14%

↑ 47％

$0 Vol.

41%

↑ 48%

$392 Vol.

4%

↑ 49％

$0 Vol.

10%

↑ 50％

$885 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Donald Trump's job approval rating has declined to the low-to-mid 30s in recent polls, marking new second-term lows around 34-36% as of mid-May 2026, primarily driven by widespread voter dissatisfaction with inflation, high prices, and economic performance—where approval stands at a career-low 30%. Polling averages from RealClearPolitics, Gallup, and others reflect a steady slide over the past month, exacerbated by the ongoing war in Iran fueling cost-of-living pressures and recession fears ahead of November 2026 midterms. Trader consensus on Polymarket weighs these headwinds against potential rebounds from policy wins or economic data releases, with historical precedents showing incumbents rarely exceed 45% at this stage amid similar challenges; key upcoming catalysts include Federal Reserve decisions and midterm generic ballot trends.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
音量
$4,837
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Donald Trump's job approval rating has declined to the low-to-mid 30s in recent polls, marking new second-term lows around 34-36% as of mid-May 2026, primarily driven by widespread voter dissatisfaction with inflation, high prices, and economic performance—where approval stands at a career-low 30%. Polling averages from RealClearPolitics, Gallup, and others reflect a steady slide over the past month, exacerbated by the ongoing war in Iran fueling cost-of-living pressures and recession fears ahead of November 2026 midterms. Trader consensus on Polymarket weighs these headwinds against potential rebounds from policy wins or economic data releases, with historical precedents showing incumbents rarely exceed 45% at this stage amid similar challenges; key upcoming catalysts include Federal Reserve decisions and midterm generic ballot trends.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
音量
$4,837
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年、トランプ大統領の支持率はどの程度になるでしょうか？」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「↑ 47％」で41%、次いで「↑ 46％」が14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、41¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に41%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「2026年、トランプ大統領の支持率はどの程度になるでしょうか？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Dec 12, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「2026年、トランプ大統領の支持率はどの程度になるでしょうか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年、トランプ大統領の支持率はどの程度になるでしょうか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「↑ 47％」で41%であり、市場がこの結果に41%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「↑ 46％」で14%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年、トランプ大統領の支持率はどの程度になるでしょうか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。