Trump’s approval rating has declined steadily through his second term, reaching averages of 34–38% by mid-August 2026 with recent polls recording lows near 30–34% and net approval at historic second-term lows. The dominant recent catalyst is the renewed U.S. military involvement in Iran, including mid-July strikes that triggered higher gasoline prices, public concern over casualties and costs, and broad disapproval of foreign-policy handling. Economic perceptions compound the pressure, with majorities faulting the administration on inflation, cost of living, tariffs, and overall growth ahead of the November 2026 midterms. Traders assessing further downside monitor escalation or de-escalation signals in the Iran conflict, monthly economic data releases, and any policy shifts that could either deepen discontent or stabilize sentiment before the midterm vote.