The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after major 2025–2026 protests and the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the current trader consensus. Power transferred rapidly to Mojtaba Khamenei, security institutions including the IRGC remained cohesive, and authorities contained subsequent unrest despite thousands of reported deaths and economic strain. Ongoing diplomatic tensions, sanctions pressure, and sporadic domestic demonstrations have not produced the sustained nationwide mobilization or institutional fractures needed for collapse. With the regime entering late 2026 weakened yet intact and no scheduled events forcing rapid change by mid-2027, traders assign an 84.5% implied probability that the Islamic Republic will endure.