The official @khamenei_ir account, now posting archival statements following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in 2026, has maintained a low posting cadence of roughly one to three items per week in recent months, often limited to historical quotes or images tied to events like Arbaeen. With the resolution window opening August 14, 2026, the account issued a single post on August 13 before quieting, consistent with its pattern under successor management. Mojtaba Khamenei's separate account handles more current messaging, leaving the primary handle focused on infrequent, non-timely content. This history underpins trader consensus that totals below five posts represent the most probable outcome for the period, with higher bins priced as remote possibilities absent a shift in operational approach.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<5 67%
5-9 24%
10-14 9%
15-19 1.0%
<5
67%
5-9
24%
10-14
9%
15-19
1%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
1%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
<5 67%
5-9 24%
10-14 9%
15-19 1.0%
<5
67%
5-9
24%
10-14
9%
15-19
1%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
1%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The official @khamenei_ir account, now posting archival statements following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in 2026, has maintained a low posting cadence of roughly one to three items per week in recent months, often limited to historical quotes or images tied to events like Arbaeen. With the resolution window opening August 14, 2026, the account issued a single post on August 13 before quieting, consistent with its pattern under successor management. Mojtaba Khamenei's separate account handles more current messaging, leaving the primary handle focused on infrequent, non-timely content. This history underpins trader consensus that totals below five posts represent the most probable outcome for the period, with higher bins priced as remote possibilities absent a shift in operational approach.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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