Traders assign Greg Abbott an 84.7% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race primarily because of the state’s consistent Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising, reinforced by his incumbency as a three-term governor seeking a fourth term. Gina Hinojosa secured the Democratic nomination with 58.5% in the March primary but trails at 16.0% on Polymarket. Recent July and August polls from Emerson College, the Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott’s lead narrowing to between one and six points amid rising Hinojosa name recognition. Market pricing continues to reflect Texas’s structural partisan lean and Abbott’s campaign organization ahead of the November 3 contest, with debates and shifts in economic or energy issues as potential variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$55,884 Vol.
$55,884 Vol.
2026/11/03
グレッグ・アボット（共和党）
85%
民主党
16%
$55,884 Vol.
$55,884 Vol.
2026/11/03
グレッグ・アボット（共和党）
$24,866 Vol.
85%
民主党
$31,018 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Traders assign Greg Abbott an 84.7% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race primarily because of the state’s consistent Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising, reinforced by his incumbency as a three-term governor seeking a fourth term. Gina Hinojosa secured the Democratic nomination with 58.5% in the March primary but trails at 16.0% on Polymarket. Recent July and August polls from Emerson College, the Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott’s lead narrowing to between one and six points amid rising Hinojosa name recognition. Market pricing continues to reflect Texas’s structural partisan lean and Abbott’s campaign organization ahead of the November 3 contest, with debates and shifts in economic or energy issues as potential variables.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
音量
$55,884終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Traders assign Greg Abbott an 84.7% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race primarily because of the state’s consistent Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising, reinforced by his incumbency as a three-term governor seeking a fourth term. Gina Hinojosa secured the Democratic nomination with 58.5% in the March primary but trails at 16.0% on Polymarket. Recent July and August polls from Emerson College, the Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott’s lead narrowing to between one and six points amid rising Hinojosa name recognition. Market pricing continues to reflect Texas’s structural partisan lean and Abbott’s campaign organization ahead of the November 3 contest, with debates and shifts in economic or energy issues as potential variables.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$55,884終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign Greg Abbott an 84.7% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race primarily because of the state’s consistent Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising, reinforced by his incumbency as a three-term governor seeking a fourth term. Gina Hinojosa secured the Democratic nomination with 58.5% in the March primary but trails at 16.0% on Polymarket. Recent July and August polls from Emerson College, the Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott’s lead narrowing to between one and six points amid rising Hinojosa name recognition. Market pricing continues to reflect Texas’s structural partisan lean and Abbott’s campaign organization ahead of the November 3 contest, with debates and shifts in economic or energy issues as potential variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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