Arizona's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, with a D+22 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. Incumbent Democrat Yassamin Ansari advanced unopposed through the July 2026 primary, while Republican nominees face structural challenges in the majority-Latino district centered on downtown and western Phoenix. Weak opposition, including limited viable candidates and minimal reported fundraising or polling activity, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles further align with current implied probabilities. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include major scandals, candidate health events, or unexpected turnout shifts, though none have emerged to date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$50,632 Vol.
$50,632 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
98%
共和党
1%
$50,632 Vol.
$50,632 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$31,713 Vol.
98%
共和党
$18,919 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, with a D+22 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. Incumbent Democrat Yassamin Ansari advanced unopposed through the July 2026 primary, while Republican nominees face structural challenges in the majority-Latino district centered on downtown and western Phoenix. Weak opposition, including limited viable candidates and minimal reported fundraising or polling activity, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles further align with current implied probabilities. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include major scandals, candidate health events, or unexpected turnout shifts, though none have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$50,632終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, with a D+22 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. Incumbent Democrat Yassamin Ansari advanced unopposed through the July 2026 primary, while Republican nominees face structural challenges in the majority-Latino district centered on downtown and western Phoenix. Weak opposition, including limited viable candidates and minimal reported fundraising or polling activity, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles further align with current implied probabilities. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include major scandals, candidate health events, or unexpected turnout shifts, though none have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$50,632終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, with a D+22 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. Incumbent Democrat Yassamin Ansari advanced unopposed through the July 2026 primary, while Republican nominees face structural challenges in the majority-Latino district centered on downtown and western Phoenix. Weak opposition, including limited viable candidates and minimal reported fundraising or polling activity, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles further align with current implied probabilities. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include major scandals, candidate health events, or unexpected turnout shifts, though none have emerged to date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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