Nigel Farage's resignation as Clacton MP on 7 July 2026 has triggered a by-election in which he intends to stand again, creating a tight contest around whether his personal vote share will exceed the 46.2% recorded in the 2024 general election. Reform UK's national polling average near 26% exceeds its 2024 result, yet the party has moderated from earlier highs, while local reactions to the resignation include both support for Farage's "people versus establishment" framing and frustration among constituents. Mainstream parties appear unlikely to mount strong challenges, leaving turnout, campaign intensity, and any late developments around party funding or local issues as key variables that could shift the implied probability either above or below 50%. The closely balanced trader consensus reflects uncertainty over how national trends translate to this specific constituency contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2027/06/30
新規
新規
2027/06/30
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage's resignation as Clacton MP on 7 July 2026 has triggered a by-election in which he intends to stand again, creating a tight contest around whether his personal vote share will exceed the 46.2% recorded in the 2024 general election. Reform UK's national polling average near 26% exceeds its 2024 result, yet the party has moderated from earlier highs, while local reactions to the resignation include both support for Farage's "people versus establishment" framing and frustration among constituents. Mainstream parties appear unlikely to mount strong challenges, leaving turnout, campaign intensity, and any late developments around party funding or local issues as key variables that could shift the implied probability either above or below 50%. The closely balanced trader consensus reflects uncertainty over how national trends translate to this specific constituency contest.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
マーケット開始日： Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage's resignation as Clacton MP on 7 July 2026 has triggered a by-election in which he intends to stand again, creating a tight contest around whether his personal vote share will exceed the 46.2% recorded in the 2024 general election. Reform UK's national polling average near 26% exceeds its 2024 result, yet the party has moderated from earlier highs, while local reactions to the resignation include both support for Farage's "people versus establishment" framing and frustration among constituents. Mainstream parties appear unlikely to mount strong challenges, leaving turnout, campaign intensity, and any late developments around party funding or local issues as key variables that could shift the implied probability either above or below 50%. The closely balanced trader consensus reflects uncertainty over how national trends translate to this specific constituency contest.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
音量
$0終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nigel Farage's resignation as Clacton MP on 7 July 2026 has triggered a by-election in which he intends to stand again, creating a tight contest around whether his personal vote share will exceed the 46.2% recorded in the 2024 general election. Reform UK's national polling average near 26% exceeds its 2024 result, yet the party has moderated from earlier highs, while local reactions to the resignation include both support for Farage's "people versus establishment" framing and frustration among constituents. Mainstream parties appear unlikely to mount strong challenges, leaving turnout, campaign intensity, and any late developments around party funding or local issues as key variables that could shift the implied probability either above or below 50%. The closely balanced trader consensus reflects uncertainty over how national trends translate to this specific constituency contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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