Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Jordan Bardella at 77.5% to become the National Rally's candidate for the 2027 French presidential election, driven by Marine Le Pen's March 2025 embezzlement conviction imposing a five-year ineligibility ban from public office unless overturned on appeal. Prosecutors urged upholding the ban with immediate effect during February 2026 hearings, with a ruling expected July 7, leaving Le Pen at 19.5% implied probability of eligibility restoration. As RN president since 2022, the 30-year-old Bardella benefits from strong first-round polling leads (35-38%) and recent municipal election gains, positioning him as the heir apparent amid party efforts to normalize internationally ahead of candidate selection.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Jordan Bardella 78%
Marine Le Pen 19%
Multiple Candidates 2.6%
新規
新規
2027/04/23
Marine Le Pen
19%
Jordan Bardella
78%
Multiple Candidates
3%
Jordan Bardella 78%
Marine Le Pen 19%
Multiple Candidates 2.6%
新規
新規
2027/04/23
Marine Le Pen
$919 Vol.
19%
Jordan Bardella
$1,734 Vol.
78%
Multiple Candidates
$260 Vol.
3%
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Jordan Bardella at 77.5% to become the National Rally's candidate for the 2027 French presidential election, driven by Marine Le Pen's March 2025 embezzlement conviction imposing a five-year ineligibility ban from public office unless overturned on appeal. Prosecutors urged upholding the ban with immediate effect during February 2026 hearings, with a ruling expected July 7, leaving Le Pen at 19.5% implied probability of eligibility restoration. As RN president since 2022, the 30-year-old Bardella benefits from strong first-round polling leads (35-38%) and recent municipal election gains, positioning him as the heir apparent amid party efforts to normalize internationally ahead of candidate selection.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
音量
$2,913終了日
2027/04/23マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Jordan Bardella at 77.5% to become the National Rally's candidate for the 2027 French presidential election, driven by Marine Le Pen's March 2025 embezzlement conviction imposing a five-year ineligibility ban from public office unless overturned on appeal. Prosecutors urged upholding the ban with immediate effect during February 2026 hearings, with a ruling expected July 7, leaving Le Pen at 19.5% implied probability of eligibility restoration. As RN president since 2022, the 30-year-old Bardella benefits from strong first-round polling leads (35-38%) and recent municipal election gains, positioning him as the heir apparent amid party efforts to normalize internationally ahead of candidate selection.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$2,913終了日
2027/04/23マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Jordan Bardella at 77.5% to become the National Rally's candidate for the 2027 French presidential election, driven by Marine Le Pen's March 2025 embezzlement conviction imposing a five-year ineligibility ban from public office unless overturned on appeal. Prosecutors urged upholding the ban with immediate effect during February 2026 hearings, with a ruling expected July 7, leaving Le Pen at 19.5% implied probability of eligibility restoration. As RN president since 2022, the 30-year-old Bardella benefits from strong first-round polling leads (35-38%) and recent municipal election gains, positioning him as the heir apparent amid party efforts to normalize internationally ahead of candidate selection.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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