Iowa's 2026 open Senate and gubernatorial races feature Republican Ashley Hinson facing Democrat Josh Turek for the Senate seat vacated by Joni Ernst, while Republican Zach Lahn contests Democrat Rob Sand for the governorship after Kim Reynolds opted not to run. Recent Emerson, Fox News, and Siena polling shows Sand holding a modest lead in the governor's race, supporting elevated trader odds on Democratic control there, while the Senate contest remains close with Hinson narrowly ahead or tied. Primary results, including Lahn's upset win and Hinson's Trump-backed nomination, combined with Cook Political Report ratings of toss-up or lean outcomes, underpin the positioning of Democratic sweeps, Republican sweeps, and split control as the main scenarios. The elevated share for "other" reflects uncertainty around polling margins, turnout patterns in this Republican-leaning state, and potential late-cycle shifts before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日民主党が圧勝 37%
知事は民主党、上院は共和党が勝利 30%
共和党が圧勝 29%
共和党が知事選、民主党が上院選で勝利 1.6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党が圧勝
37%
知事は民主党、上院は共和党が勝利
30%
共和党が圧勝
29%
共和党が知事選、民主党が上院選で勝利
2%
民主党が圧勝 37%
知事は民主党、上院は共和党が勝利 30%
共和党が圧勝 29%
共和党が知事選、民主党が上院選で勝利 1.6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党が圧勝
$812 Vol.
37%
知事は民主党、上院は共和党が勝利
$2,340 Vol.
30%
共和党が圧勝
$1,564 Vol.
29%
共和党が知事選、民主党が上院選で勝利
$341 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Iowa that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Iowa's 2026 open Senate and gubernatorial races feature Republican Ashley Hinson facing Democrat Josh Turek for the Senate seat vacated by Joni Ernst, while Republican Zach Lahn contests Democrat Rob Sand for the governorship after Kim Reynolds opted not to run. Recent Emerson, Fox News, and Siena polling shows Sand holding a modest lead in the governor's race, supporting elevated trader odds on Democratic control there, while the Senate contest remains close with Hinson narrowly ahead or tied. Primary results, including Lahn's upset win and Hinson's Trump-backed nomination, combined with Cook Political Report ratings of toss-up or lean outcomes, underpin the positioning of Democratic sweeps, Republican sweeps, and split control as the main scenarios. The elevated share for "other" reflects uncertainty around polling margins, turnout patterns in this Republican-leaning state, and potential late-cycle shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Iowa that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
音量
$5,057終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Iowa that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Iowa's 2026 open Senate and gubernatorial races feature Republican Ashley Hinson facing Democrat Josh Turek for the Senate seat vacated by Joni Ernst, while Republican Zach Lahn contests Democrat Rob Sand for the governorship after Kim Reynolds opted not to run. Recent Emerson, Fox News, and Siena polling shows Sand holding a modest lead in the governor's race, supporting elevated trader odds on Democratic control there, while the Senate contest remains close with Hinson narrowly ahead or tied. Primary results, including Lahn's upset win and Hinson's Trump-backed nomination, combined with Cook Political Report ratings of toss-up or lean outcomes, underpin the positioning of Democratic sweeps, Republican sweeps, and split control as the main scenarios. The elevated share for "other" reflects uncertainty around polling margins, turnout patterns in this Republican-leaning state, and potential late-cycle shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Iowa that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$5,057終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iowa's 2026 open Senate and gubernatorial races feature Republican Ashley Hinson facing Democrat Josh Turek for the Senate seat vacated by Joni Ernst, while Republican Zach Lahn contests Democrat Rob Sand for the governorship after Kim Reynolds opted not to run. Recent Emerson, Fox News, and Siena polling shows Sand holding a modest lead in the governor's race, supporting elevated trader odds on Democratic control there, while the Senate contest remains close with Hinson narrowly ahead or tied. Primary results, including Lahn's upset win and Hinson's Trump-backed nomination, combined with Cook Political Report ratings of toss-up or lean outcomes, underpin the positioning of Democratic sweeps, Republican sweeps, and split control as the main scenarios. The elevated share for "other" reflects uncertainty around polling margins, turnout patterns in this Republican-leaning state, and potential late-cycle shifts before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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