David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a narrow margin of roughly 3,200–4,000 votes, or about 0.5 percentage points, over Francesca Hong after nearly all ballots were counted. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement and Crowley’s positioning as a moderate helped consolidate support against Hong’s progressive campaign in the final weeks, producing an outcome that reversed late polling trends. The market’s strong consensus around the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects these near-complete tallies and Hong’s concession, which eliminated any realistic path to a recount. Remaining uncounted absentee or provisional ballots or post-certification adjustments represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the final margin outside that narrow range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Crowley 0.4–0.6% 92%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 7.5%
Crowley 0.8–1% 1.9%
Crowley <0.2% <1%
$168,108 Vol.
$168,108 Vol.
2026/08/12
Hong 1%+
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
<1%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
<1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
<1%
Hong <0.2%
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
1%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
8%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
92%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
<1%
Crowley 0.8–1%
2%
Crowley 1–1.2%
<1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
<1%
Crowley 2%+
<1%
Crowley 0.4–0.6% 92%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 7.5%
Crowley 0.8–1% 1.9%
Crowley <0.2% <1%
$168,108 Vol.
$168,108 Vol.
2026/08/12
Hong 1%+
$319 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
$232 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
$694 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
$716 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
$749 Vol.
<1%
Hong <0.2%
$576 Vol.
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
$33,102 Vol.
1%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
$22,582 Vol.
8%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
$23,714 Vol.
92%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
$24,965 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 0.8–1%
$26,335 Vol.
2%
Crowley 1–1.2%
$28,827 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
$1,194 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
$1,140 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
$1,181 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
$1,261 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 2%+
$521 Vol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a narrow margin of roughly 3,200–4,000 votes, or about 0.5 percentage points, over Francesca Hong after nearly all ballots were counted. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement and Crowley’s positioning as a moderate helped consolidate support against Hong’s progressive campaign in the final weeks, producing an outcome that reversed late polling trends. The market’s strong consensus around the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects these near-complete tallies and Hong’s concession, which eliminated any realistic path to a recount. Remaining uncounted absentee or provisional ballots or post-certification adjustments represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the final margin outside that narrow range.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
音量
$168,108終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a narrow margin of roughly 3,200–4,000 votes, or about 0.5 percentage points, over Francesca Hong after nearly all ballots were counted. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement and Crowley’s positioning as a moderate helped consolidate support against Hong’s progressive campaign in the final weeks, producing an outcome that reversed late polling trends. The market’s strong consensus around the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects these near-complete tallies and Hong’s concession, which eliminated any realistic path to a recount. Remaining uncounted absentee or provisional ballots or post-certification adjustments represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the final margin outside that narrow range.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$168,108終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary by a narrow margin of roughly 3,200–4,000 votes, or about 0.5 percentage points, over Francesca Hong after nearly all ballots were counted. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement and Crowley’s positioning as a moderate helped consolidate support against Hong’s progressive campaign in the final weeks, producing an outcome that reversed late polling trends. The market’s strong consensus around the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects these near-complete tallies and Hong’s concession, which eliminated any realistic path to a recount. Remaining uncounted absentee or provisional ballots or post-certification adjustments represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the final margin outside that narrow range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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