Illinois's 5th Congressional District carries a D+19 partisan voter index and delivered a 38-point Democratic margin in 2024, establishing a durable structural advantage that shapes trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November 3 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Quigley's concurrent Chicago mayoral bid introduces some uncertainty around future vacancy timing but has not altered the general-election trajectory. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented swing in a district with consistent double-digit Democratic margins and limited GOP infrastructure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,257 Vol.
$25,257 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
96%
共和党
5%
$25,257 Vol.
$25,257 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$8,961 Vol.
96%
共和党
$16,296 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 5th Congressional District carries a D+19 partisan voter index and delivered a 38-point Democratic margin in 2024, establishing a durable structural advantage that shapes trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November 3 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Quigley's concurrent Chicago mayoral bid introduces some uncertainty around future vacancy timing but has not altered the general-election trajectory. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented swing in a district with consistent double-digit Democratic margins and limited GOP infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$25,257終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 5th Congressional District carries a D+19 partisan voter index and delivered a 38-point Democratic margin in 2024, establishing a durable structural advantage that shapes trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November 3 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Quigley's concurrent Chicago mayoral bid introduces some uncertainty around future vacancy timing but has not altered the general-election trajectory. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented swing in a district with consistent double-digit Democratic margins and limited GOP infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,257終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 5th Congressional District carries a D+19 partisan voter index and delivered a 38-point Democratic margin in 2024, establishing a durable structural advantage that shapes trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November 3 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Quigley's concurrent Chicago mayoral bid introduces some uncertainty around future vacancy timing but has not altered the general-election trajectory. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented swing in a district with consistent double-digit Democratic margins and limited GOP infrastructure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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