Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller's decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary—securing over 40% against a crowded field including former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., bolstered by $4.4 million from an AIPAC-aligned group—has solidified trader consensus behind Democrats at 94.5% implied probability to win Illinois's 2nd Congressional District on November 3. The district's D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflects its deep Democratic lean, with historical midterm results favoring the party by wide margins in this Chicago South Side stronghold, now an open seat after Rep. Robin Kelly's departure. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces steep structural barriers absent a national GOP wave. Late-breaking Democratic scandals, candidate health issues, or legal challenges could shift odds, though such disruptions remain low-probability risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$30,650 Vol.
$30,650 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$30,650 Vol.
$30,650 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$12,145 Vol.
95%
共和党
$18,505 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller's decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary—securing over 40% against a crowded field including former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., bolstered by $4.4 million from an AIPAC-aligned group—has solidified trader consensus behind Democrats at 94.5% implied probability to win Illinois's 2nd Congressional District on November 3. The district's D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflects its deep Democratic lean, with historical midterm results favoring the party by wide margins in this Chicago South Side stronghold, now an open seat after Rep. Robin Kelly's departure. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces steep structural barriers absent a national GOP wave. Late-breaking Democratic scandals, candidate health issues, or legal challenges could shift odds, though such disruptions remain low-probability risks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$30,650終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller's decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary—securing over 40% against a crowded field including former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., bolstered by $4.4 million from an AIPAC-aligned group—has solidified trader consensus behind Democrats at 94.5% implied probability to win Illinois's 2nd Congressional District on November 3. The district's D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflects its deep Democratic lean, with historical midterm results favoring the party by wide margins in this Chicago South Side stronghold, now an open seat after Rep. Robin Kelly's departure. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces steep structural barriers absent a national GOP wave. Late-breaking Democratic scandals, candidate health issues, or legal challenges could shift odds, though such disruptions remain low-probability risks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$30,650終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller's decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary—securing over 40% against a crowded field including former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., bolstered by $4.4 million from an AIPAC-aligned group—has solidified trader consensus behind Democrats at 94.5% implied probability to win Illinois's 2nd Congressional District on November 3. The district's D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflects its deep Democratic lean, with historical midterm results favoring the party by wide margins in this Chicago South Side stronghold, now an open seat after Rep. Robin Kelly's departure. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces steep structural barriers absent a national GOP wave. Late-breaking Democratic scandals, candidate health issues, or legal challenges could shift odds, though such disruptions remain low-probability risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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