Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker’s strong position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district underpins the 90% Republican probability in the PA-11 House Election Winner market. The solidly Republican-leaning seat delivered consistent margins for GOP candidates in prior cycles, and both parties’ May 2026 primaries produced expected nominees without notable upsets or challenges. Democratic candidate Nancy Mannion, a nurse and small business owner, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising visibility and the district’s voting history, leaving little room for a competitive general election contest before November 3. Trader consensus reflects these established patterns and the absence of recent catalysts capable of narrowing the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$14,782 Vol.
$14,782 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
90%
民主党
9%
$14,782 Vol.
$14,782 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$9,832 Vol.
90%
民主党
$4,950 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker’s strong position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district underpins the 90% Republican probability in the PA-11 House Election Winner market. The solidly Republican-leaning seat delivered consistent margins for GOP candidates in prior cycles, and both parties’ May 2026 primaries produced expected nominees without notable upsets or challenges. Democratic candidate Nancy Mannion, a nurse and small business owner, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising visibility and the district’s voting history, leaving little room for a competitive general election contest before November 3. Trader consensus reflects these established patterns and the absence of recent catalysts capable of narrowing the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$14,782終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker’s strong position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district underpins the 90% Republican probability in the PA-11 House Election Winner market. The solidly Republican-leaning seat delivered consistent margins for GOP candidates in prior cycles, and both parties’ May 2026 primaries produced expected nominees without notable upsets or challenges. Democratic candidate Nancy Mannion, a nurse and small business owner, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising visibility and the district’s voting history, leaving little room for a competitive general election contest before November 3. Trader consensus reflects these established patterns and the absence of recent catalysts capable of narrowing the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$14,782終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker’s strong position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district underpins the 90% Republican probability in the PA-11 House Election Winner market. The solidly Republican-leaning seat delivered consistent margins for GOP candidates in prior cycles, and both parties’ May 2026 primaries produced expected nominees without notable upsets or challenges. Democratic candidate Nancy Mannion, a nurse and small business owner, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising visibility and the district’s voting history, leaving little room for a competitive general election contest before November 3. Trader consensus reflects these established patterns and the absence of recent catalysts capable of narrowing the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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