The Republican incumbent’s entrenched position in a district rated R+11 by the Cook Political Report drives the current trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 88.5 percent. Lloyd Smucker’s unopposed path through the May 19 primary, combined with strong fundraising and the absence of a competitive Democratic challenger, reinforces this outlook ahead of the November general election. Democratic candidates remain limited to a low-profile primary field, offering little immediate threat in a seat that has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. With no significant polling shifts or external events altering the baseline in recent weeks, market pricing reflects these durable structural factors rather than any short-term volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
89%
民主党
12%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$2,008 Vol.
89%
民主党
$808 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican incumbent’s entrenched position in a district rated R+11 by the Cook Political Report drives the current trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 88.5 percent. Lloyd Smucker’s unopposed path through the May 19 primary, combined with strong fundraising and the absence of a competitive Democratic challenger, reinforces this outlook ahead of the November general election. Democratic candidates remain limited to a low-profile primary field, offering little immediate threat in a seat that has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. With no significant polling shifts or external events altering the baseline in recent weeks, market pricing reflects these durable structural factors rather than any short-term volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$2,815終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican incumbent’s entrenched position in a district rated R+11 by the Cook Political Report drives the current trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 88.5 percent. Lloyd Smucker’s unopposed path through the May 19 primary, combined with strong fundraising and the absence of a competitive Democratic challenger, reinforces this outlook ahead of the November general election. Democratic candidates remain limited to a low-profile primary field, offering little immediate threat in a seat that has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. With no significant polling shifts or external events altering the baseline in recent weeks, market pricing reflects these durable structural factors rather than any short-term volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$2,815終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican incumbent’s entrenched position in a district rated R+11 by the Cook Political Report drives the current trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 88.5 percent. Lloyd Smucker’s unopposed path through the May 19 primary, combined with strong fundraising and the absence of a competitive Democratic challenger, reinforces this outlook ahead of the November general election. Democratic candidates remain limited to a low-profile primary field, offering little immediate threat in a seat that has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. With no significant polling shifts or external events altering the baseline in recent weeks, market pricing reflects these durable structural factors rather than any short-term volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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