Incumbent U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson's decision to run for governor has left South Dakota's at-large House seat open, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 94% due to the state's strong Republican lean (R+16 partisan voting index) and historical landslide margins, like Johnson's 72% win in 2024. Attorney General Marty Jackley dominates recent GOP primary polls, leading James Bialota 68%-12% in Mason-Dixon's April survey with over $1 million raised, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advances unopposed but trails in fundraising. The June 2 primary looms as the key near-term event, though a Democratic upset would require a GOP nominee scandal, primary bloodbath weakening the winner, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$16,931 Vol.
$16,931 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
5%
$16,931 Vol.
$16,931 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$9,474 Vol.
94%
民主党
$7,457 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson's decision to run for governor has left South Dakota's at-large House seat open, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 94% due to the state's strong Republican lean (R+16 partisan voting index) and historical landslide margins, like Johnson's 72% win in 2024. Attorney General Marty Jackley dominates recent GOP primary polls, leading James Bialota 68%-12% in Mason-Dixon's April survey with over $1 million raised, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advances unopposed but trails in fundraising. The June 2 primary looms as the key near-term event, though a Democratic upset would require a GOP nominee scandal, primary bloodbath weakening the winner, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$16,931終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson's decision to run for governor has left South Dakota's at-large House seat open, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 94% due to the state's strong Republican lean (R+16 partisan voting index) and historical landslide margins, like Johnson's 72% win in 2024. Attorney General Marty Jackley dominates recent GOP primary polls, leading James Bialota 68%-12% in Mason-Dixon's April survey with over $1 million raised, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advances unopposed but trails in fundraising. The June 2 primary looms as the key near-term event, though a Democratic upset would require a GOP nominee scandal, primary bloodbath weakening the winner, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$16,931終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson's decision to run for governor has left South Dakota's at-large House seat open, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 94% due to the state's strong Republican lean (R+16 partisan voting index) and historical landslide margins, like Johnson's 72% win in 2024. Attorney General Marty Jackley dominates recent GOP primary polls, leading James Bialota 68%-12% in Mason-Dixon's April survey with over $1 million raised, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advances unopposed but trails in fundraising. The June 2 primary looms as the key near-term event, though a Democratic upset would require a GOP nominee scandal, primary bloodbath weakening the winner, or extraordinary national midterm dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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