Incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson's commanding primary victory on March 10, capturing 86% against challengers, solidified his path to an 18th term in the solidly Democratic MS-02, a D+11 district with a strong Black voter base and history of lopsided wins, including 62%-38% over Republican Ron Eller in 2024. Eller narrowly secured the GOP nomination at 51%, but faces steep barriers with minimal fundraising—$38,000 cash on hand versus Thompson's $1.4 million as of late March—reflecting trader consensus on Democratic dominance. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic) underscore limited GOP path to victory ahead of the November 4 general election, absent major shifts like scandal or national wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$21,602 Vol.
$21,602 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
86%
共和党
11%
$21,602 Vol.
$21,602 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$11,308 Vol.
86%
共和党
$10,294 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson's commanding primary victory on March 10, capturing 86% against challengers, solidified his path to an 18th term in the solidly Democratic MS-02, a D+11 district with a strong Black voter base and history of lopsided wins, including 62%-38% over Republican Ron Eller in 2024. Eller narrowly secured the GOP nomination at 51%, but faces steep barriers with minimal fundraising—$38,000 cash on hand versus Thompson's $1.4 million as of late March—reflecting trader consensus on Democratic dominance. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic) underscore limited GOP path to victory ahead of the November 4 general election, absent major shifts like scandal or national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$21,602終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson's commanding primary victory on March 10, capturing 86% against challengers, solidified his path to an 18th term in the solidly Democratic MS-02, a D+11 district with a strong Black voter base and history of lopsided wins, including 62%-38% over Republican Ron Eller in 2024. Eller narrowly secured the GOP nomination at 51%, but faces steep barriers with minimal fundraising—$38,000 cash on hand versus Thompson's $1.4 million as of late March—reflecting trader consensus on Democratic dominance. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic) underscore limited GOP path to victory ahead of the November 4 general election, absent major shifts like scandal or national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$21,602終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson's commanding primary victory on March 10, capturing 86% against challengers, solidified his path to an 18th term in the solidly Democratic MS-02, a D+11 district with a strong Black voter base and history of lopsided wins, including 62%-38% over Republican Ron Eller in 2024. Eller narrowly secured the GOP nomination at 51%, but faces steep barriers with minimal fundraising—$38,000 cash on hand versus Thompson's $1.4 million as of late March—reflecting trader consensus on Democratic dominance. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Democratic) underscore limited GOP path to victory ahead of the November 4 general election, absent major shifts like scandal or national wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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