Colorado voters will decide Initiative 109 on the November 2026 ballot after Protect Kids Colorado submitted over 168,000 validated signatures in March, qualifying the measure that would require school and collegiate athletic teams to be designated by biological sex based on reproductive anatomy. In a state with Democratic-leaning voter registration and organized opposition campaigns from LGBTQ+ advocacy groups, traders assign a 59.5% implied probability against passage. Similar measures are advancing in Arizona and Washington, but Colorado’s electoral environment and coalition efforts to defeat the proposal remain the primary factors shaping current market positioning ahead of the general election.