**Morena holds a dominant position in Guerrero state politics ahead of the 2027 legislative elections, reflected in its 84% implied probability as the Congress winner.** The party currently controls 22 of 46 seats in the LXIV Legislature and benefits from strong internal organization, including the recent designation of Beatriz Mojica Morga as state coordinator following internal surveys where she led decisively. National Morena leadership has reinforced unity around Mojica, while local negotiations for alliances with PT and PVEM proceed separately from the national pact. Recent polls for related races, such as the governorship, show Morena candidates maintaining double-digit leads over PRI, PAN, and other opponents. Opposition parties face lower probabilities due to fragmented support and weaker territorial structures, with PRI, PT, PAN, PVEM, and MC trailing significantly in available surveys. Scheduled 2027 contests for local deputies, combined with Morena’s incumbency and ongoing party consolidation efforts, underpin trader consensus on its frontrunner status, though outcomes remain subject to campaign dynamics and alliance finalization.