Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's dominant fundraising—outpacing all eight Democratic challengers combined in Q1 2026—and lack of serious primary opposition solidify trader consensus at 79.5% for a GOP hold in the deeply red Kansas U.S. Senate race. Recent Democratic announcements, including pastor Adam Hamilton's May entry and a state senator's bid earlier that week, have crowded the primary field ahead of the August 4 contest but failed to dent Marshall's edge amid the state's long Republican incumbency streak and historical base rates favoring the party. No recent polling shows competitiveness, with Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican despite hypothetical stronger Democratic recruits like term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly. General election looms November 3, potentially shifting on primary outcomes or national midterms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,843 Vol.
$27,843 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
80%
民主党
17%
$27,843 Vol.
$27,843 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$16,815 Vol.
80%
民主党
$11,028 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's dominant fundraising—outpacing all eight Democratic challengers combined in Q1 2026—and lack of serious primary opposition solidify trader consensus at 79.5% for a GOP hold in the deeply red Kansas U.S. Senate race. Recent Democratic announcements, including pastor Adam Hamilton's May entry and a state senator's bid earlier that week, have crowded the primary field ahead of the August 4 contest but failed to dent Marshall's edge amid the state's long Republican incumbency streak and historical base rates favoring the party. No recent polling shows competitiveness, with Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican despite hypothetical stronger Democratic recruits like term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly. General election looms November 3, potentially shifting on primary outcomes or national midterms.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
音量
$27,843終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's dominant fundraising—outpacing all eight Democratic challengers combined in Q1 2026—and lack of serious primary opposition solidify trader consensus at 79.5% for a GOP hold in the deeply red Kansas U.S. Senate race. Recent Democratic announcements, including pastor Adam Hamilton's May entry and a state senator's bid earlier that week, have crowded the primary field ahead of the August 4 contest but failed to dent Marshall's edge amid the state's long Republican incumbency streak and historical base rates favoring the party. No recent polling shows competitiveness, with Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican despite hypothetical stronger Democratic recruits like term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly. General election looms November 3, potentially shifting on primary outcomes or national midterms.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$27,843終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's dominant fundraising—outpacing all eight Democratic challengers combined in Q1 2026—and lack of serious primary opposition solidify trader consensus at 79.5% for a GOP hold in the deeply red Kansas U.S. Senate race. Recent Democratic announcements, including pastor Adam Hamilton's May entry and a state senator's bid earlier that week, have crowded the primary field ahead of the August 4 contest but failed to dent Marshall's edge amid the state's long Republican incumbency streak and historical base rates favoring the party. No recent polling shows competitiveness, with Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican despite hypothetical stronger Democratic recruits like term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly. General election looms November 3, potentially shifting on primary outcomes or national midterms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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