Recent generic ballot polling showing Democrats ahead by roughly five points on average has positioned several Democratic margin buckets as competitive favorites in the 2026 House popular vote, yet the leading 45.5% share on “Other” reflects persistent uncertainty over the final spread this far from November. Traders appear to discount early Democratic leads based on historical midterm patterns, where the president’s party typically faces headwinds from low turnout and special-election results favoring the opposition. Ongoing redistricting in states such as Florida, Louisiana, and Virginia, combined with narrow Republican majorities entering the cycle, keeps small-margin Republican outcomes viable while primaries and candidate recruitment continue to reshape swing-district dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日民主党 8-10% 15%
民主党 10-12% 13%
共和党 0〜2% 9.6%
民主党 6～8％ 9%
$34,848 Vol.
$34,848 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党 16％以上
3%
民主党 14-16％
4%
民主党 12〜14％
3%
民主党 10-12%
13%
民主党 8-10%
15%
民主党 6～8％
9%
民主党 4-6%
7%
民主党 2-4％
3%
民主党 0～2％
5%
共和党 0〜2%
10%
共和党 2～4％
8%
共和党 4～6％
2%
共和党 6％以上
3%
民主党 8-10% 15%
民主党 10-12% 13%
共和党 0〜2% 9.6%
民主党 6～8％ 9%
$34,848 Vol.
$34,848 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党 16％以上
$804 Vol.
3%
民主党 14-16％
$476 Vol.
4%
民主党 12〜14％
$462 Vol.
3%
民主党 10-12%
$830 Vol.
13%
民主党 8-10%
$1,555 Vol.
15%
民主党 6～8％
$693 Vol.
9%
民主党 4-6%
$258 Vol.
7%
民主党 2-4％
$1,012 Vol.
3%
民主党 0～2％
$889 Vol.
5%
共和党 0〜2%
$864 Vol.
10%
共和党 2～4％
$26,019 Vol.
8%
共和党 4～6％
$230 Vol.
2%
共和党 6％以上
$757 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling showing Democrats ahead by roughly five points on average has positioned several Democratic margin buckets as competitive favorites in the 2026 House popular vote, yet the leading 45.5% share on “Other” reflects persistent uncertainty over the final spread this far from November. Traders appear to discount early Democratic leads based on historical midterm patterns, where the president’s party typically faces headwinds from low turnout and special-election results favoring the opposition. Ongoing redistricting in states such as Florida, Louisiana, and Virginia, combined with narrow Republican majorities entering the cycle, keeps small-margin Republican outcomes viable while primaries and candidate recruitment continue to reshape swing-district dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$34,848終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling showing Democrats ahead by roughly five points on average has positioned several Democratic margin buckets as competitive favorites in the 2026 House popular vote, yet the leading 45.5% share on “Other” reflects persistent uncertainty over the final spread this far from November. Traders appear to discount early Democratic leads based on historical midterm patterns, where the president’s party typically faces headwinds from low turnout and special-election results favoring the opposition. Ongoing redistricting in states such as Florida, Louisiana, and Virginia, combined with narrow Republican majorities entering the cycle, keeps small-margin Republican outcomes viable while primaries and candidate recruitment continue to reshape swing-district dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
音量
$34,848終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling showing Democrats ahead by roughly five points on average has positioned several Democratic margin buckets as competitive favorites in the 2026 House popular vote, yet the leading 45.5% share on “Other” reflects persistent uncertainty over the final spread this far from November. Traders appear to discount early Democratic leads based on historical midterm patterns, where the president’s party typically faces headwinds from low turnout and special-election results favoring the opposition. Ongoing redistricting in states such as Florida, Louisiana, and Virginia, combined with narrow Republican majorities entering the cycle, keeps small-margin Republican outcomes viable while primaries and candidate recruitment continue to reshape swing-district dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問