**The 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open section in Samarkand, Uzbekistan (September 15–27, 2026) features an 11-round Swiss team format with a record field of 208 squads, making the top contenders' narrow rating gaps and roster strengths the main drivers of market pricing.** The United States enters as the top seed (~2753 average rating) with Fabiano Caruana on board one, Wesley So, Hans Niemann (Olympiad debut), Levon Aronian, and Awonder Liang in reserve. India, the defending champion from Budapest 2024, sits second (~2735) with a deep, experienced lineup led by Arjun Erigaisi and R Praggnanandhaa, world champion Gukesh Dommaraju on board four, and Vidit Gujrathi as reserve. Host Uzbekistan ranks third (~2720) behind Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Javokhir Sindarov, and a strong supporting cast, benefiting from home-soil momentum and recent team success. These three teams sit within roughly 33 rating points on average, creating a razor-thin hierarchy reflected in the closely bunched implied probabilities (Uzbekistan 30.5%, India 28.5%, USA 26.5%). China trails at 7.5% as a clear fourth option. Recent lineup confirmations and the event's start have reinforced this tightness, with early-round results showing expected dominance by the favorites but underscoring how Swiss pairings, board-order flexibility, reserve usage over 11 rounds, and minor form fluctuations can shift outcomes among evenly matched squads. No standout injuries or absences beyond Magnus Carlsen and Hikaru Nakamura have altered the core dynamic.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Uzbekistan 31%
India 29%
United States of America 27%
China 8%
$89,481 Vol.
$89,481 Vol.
Uzbekistan
31%
India
29%
United States of America
27%
China
8%
Germany
2%
Azerbaijan
2%
Hungary
2%
Armenia
2%
France
2%
Netherlands
1%
Turkiye
1%
Serbia
1%
Poland
<1%
England
<1%
Spain
<1%
Georgia
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Czech Republic
<1%
Greece
<1%
Norway
<1%
Argentina
<1%
Austria
<1%
Brazil
<1%
Bulgaria
<1%
Canada
<1%
Chile
<1%
Colombia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Iran
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Latvia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Mexico
<1%
Romania
<1%
Slovenia
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Turkmenistan
<1%
Vietnam
<1%
Uzbekistan 31%
India 29%
United States of America 27%
China 8%
$89,481 Vol.
$89,481 Vol.
Uzbekistan
31%
India
29%
United States of America
27%
China
8%
Germany
2%
Azerbaijan
2%
Hungary
2%
Armenia
2%
France
2%
Netherlands
1%
Turkiye
1%
Serbia
1%
Poland
<1%
England
<1%
Spain
<1%
Georgia
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Czech Republic
<1%
Greece
<1%
Norway
<1%
Argentina
<1%
Austria
<1%
Brazil
<1%
Bulgaria
<1%
Canada
<1%
Chile
<1%
Colombia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Iran
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Latvia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Mexico
<1%
Romania
<1%
Slovenia
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Turkmenistan
<1%
Vietnam
<1%
If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 30, 2026, 11:29 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**The 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open section in Samarkand, Uzbekistan (September 15–27, 2026) features an 11-round Swiss team format with a record field of 208 squads, making the top contenders' narrow rating gaps and roster strengths the main drivers of market pricing.** The United States enters as the top seed (~2753 average rating) with Fabiano Caruana on board one, Wesley So, Hans Niemann (Olympiad debut), Levon Aronian, and Awonder Liang in reserve. India, the defending champion from Budapest 2024, sits second (~2735) with a deep, experienced lineup led by Arjun Erigaisi and R Praggnanandhaa, world champion Gukesh Dommaraju on board four, and Vidit Gujrathi as reserve. Host Uzbekistan ranks third (~2720) behind Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Javokhir Sindarov, and a strong supporting cast, benefiting from home-soil momentum and recent team success. These three teams sit within roughly 33 rating points on average, creating a razor-thin hierarchy reflected in the closely bunched implied probabilities (Uzbekistan 30.5%, India 28.5%, USA 26.5%). China trails at 7.5% as a clear fourth option. Recent lineup confirmations and the event's start have reinforced this tightness, with early-round results showing expected dominance by the favorites but underscoring how Swiss pairings, board-order flexibility, reserve usage over 11 rounds, and minor form fluctuations can shift outcomes among evenly matched squads. No standout injuries or absences beyond Magnus Carlsen and Hikaru Nakamura have altered the core dynamic.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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