Ahmed al-Sharaa’s appointment as transitional president in January 2025 and subsequent consolidation of authority through a five-year constitutional framework have anchored trader expectations that he will remain in office through the end of 2026. Recent developments include indirect legislative elections, cabinet reshuffles in May 2026, and integration agreements with Kurdish-led forces, alongside diplomatic outreach such as meetings with U.S. officials and participation in anti-ISIL efforts. Foiled assassination plots reported by the UN in February 2026 and ongoing management of sectarian tensions have not produced viable alternatives or institutional challenges capable of forcing an early exit. These factors, combined with sustained international engagement, underpin the current 88.5% implied probability that al-Sharaa completes the transitional period without removal or resignation.