The Bank of England's September 2026 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% featured a 6-3 split, with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike amid rising energy costs from Middle East conflict. August CPI inflation reached 3.1%, up from 2.9% in July, and the central bank now projects it exceeding 4% in early 2027 as higher energy and food prices feed through. Governor Andrew Bailey noted that prolonged volatility increases the likelihood of tighter policy to anchor the 2% target, while market curves show an upward slope with roughly 63% odds of a November move. These developments, alongside persistent hawkish dissent and revised inflation forecasts, underpin the 84.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike before year-end, reflecting traders' assessment of upside risks in the data-dependent outlook.