Incumbent Ami Bera (D) dominates trader consensus to advance from California's June 2 top-two primary in the redrawn CA-03, bolstered by her incumbency, $1.8 million cash-on-hand lead as of late March, and the district's shift to D+6 partisan lean following Proposition 50 redistricting last November. Robb Tucker (R) emerges as the favored second-place contender at 73% implied probability, capitalizing on fragmented Democratic challengers like Heidi Hall and Chris Bennett splitting votes among four GOP hopefuls. Early ballot returns over the past week show Republicans slightly outpacing Democrats in returns, potentially aiding a GOP top-two berth despite Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. The market awaits primary results for November general matchup.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日CA-03 Primary Winners
CA-03 Primary Winners
新規
2026/06/02
Ami Bera
93%
Robb Tucker
65%
Christine Bish
32%
Heidi Hall
17%
Chris Bennett
7%
Laura Koscki
6%
Chris Richardson
4%
Lyndon Cervantes
3%
$4,465 Vol.
Ami Bera
$459 Vol.
93%
Robb Tucker
$1,972 Vol.
65%
Christine Bish
$1,125 Vol.
32%
Heidi Hall
$452 Vol.
17%
Chris Bennett
$258 Vol.
7%
Laura Koscki
$73 Vol.
6%
Chris Richardson
$125 Vol.
4%
Lyndon Cervantes
$0 Vol.
3%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Ami Bera (D) dominates trader consensus to advance from California's June 2 top-two primary in the redrawn CA-03, bolstered by her incumbency, $1.8 million cash-on-hand lead as of late March, and the district's shift to D+6 partisan lean following Proposition 50 redistricting last November. Robb Tucker (R) emerges as the favored second-place contender at 73% implied probability, capitalizing on fragmented Democratic challengers like Heidi Hall and Chris Bennett splitting votes among four GOP hopefuls. Early ballot returns over the past week show Republicans slightly outpacing Democrats in returns, potentially aiding a GOP top-two berth despite Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. The market awaits primary results for November general matchup.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
音量
$4,465終了日
2026/06/02マーケット開始日
Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Ami Bera (D) dominates trader consensus to advance from California's June 2 top-two primary in the redrawn CA-03, bolstered by her incumbency, $1.8 million cash-on-hand lead as of late March, and the district's shift to D+6 partisan lean following Proposition 50 redistricting last November. Robb Tucker (R) emerges as the favored second-place contender at 73% implied probability, capitalizing on fragmented Democratic challengers like Heidi Hall and Chris Bennett splitting votes among four GOP hopefuls. Early ballot returns over the past week show Republicans slightly outpacing Democrats in returns, potentially aiding a GOP top-two berth despite Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. The market awaits primary results for November general matchup.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$4,465終了日
2026/06/02マーケット開始日
Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Ami Bera (D) dominates trader consensus to advance from California's June 2 top-two primary in the redrawn CA-03, bolstered by her incumbency, $1.8 million cash-on-hand lead as of late March, and the district's shift to D+6 partisan lean following Proposition 50 redistricting last November. Robb Tucker (R) emerges as the favored second-place contender at 73% implied probability, capitalizing on fragmented Democratic challengers like Heidi Hall and Chris Bennett splitting votes among four GOP hopefuls. Early ballot returns over the past week show Republicans slightly outpacing Democrats in returns, potentially aiding a GOP top-two berth despite Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. The market awaits primary results for November general matchup.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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