Strong containment efforts and the virus's requirement for close physical contact have kept the 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak largely regional, driving the 96.3% market-implied probability of no pandemic. As of mid-August, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported over 4,660 confirmed cases and 2,180 deaths, primarily in Ituri and North Kivu provinces, with limited cross-border spread into Uganda; official assessments from WHO, CDC, and ECDC rate global and U.S. risk as very low due to surveillance, isolation protocols, and absence of sustained international transmission. Historical patterns show Ebola outbreaks rarely escalate beyond localized epidemics without major lapses in response. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected exportation to high-mobility areas, mutations enhancing airborne potential, or overwhelmed health systems allowing wider seeding before vaccines or treatments scale.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% 確率
$691,779 Vol.
$691,779 Vol.
2026/12/31
4% 確率
$691,779 Vol.
$691,779 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment efforts and the virus's requirement for close physical contact have kept the 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak largely regional, driving the 96.3% market-implied probability of no pandemic. As of mid-August, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported over 4,660 confirmed cases and 2,180 deaths, primarily in Ituri and North Kivu provinces, with limited cross-border spread into Uganda; official assessments from WHO, CDC, and ECDC rate global and U.S. risk as very low due to surveillance, isolation protocols, and absence of sustained international transmission. Historical patterns show Ebola outbreaks rarely escalate beyond localized epidemics without major lapses in response. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected exportation to high-mobility areas, mutations enhancing airborne potential, or overwhelmed health systems allowing wider seeding before vaccines or treatments scale.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
音量
$691,779終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment efforts and the virus's requirement for close physical contact have kept the 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak largely regional, driving the 96.3% market-implied probability of no pandemic. As of mid-August, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported over 4,660 confirmed cases and 2,180 deaths, primarily in Ituri and North Kivu provinces, with limited cross-border spread into Uganda; official assessments from WHO, CDC, and ECDC rate global and U.S. risk as very low due to surveillance, isolation protocols, and absence of sustained international transmission. Historical patterns show Ebola outbreaks rarely escalate beyond localized epidemics without major lapses in response. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected exportation to high-mobility areas, mutations enhancing airborne potential, or overwhelmed health systems allowing wider seeding before vaccines or treatments scale.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$691,779終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong containment efforts and the virus's requirement for close physical contact have kept the 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak largely regional, driving the 96.3% market-implied probability of no pandemic. As of mid-August, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported over 4,660 confirmed cases and 2,180 deaths, primarily in Ituri and North Kivu provinces, with limited cross-border spread into Uganda; official assessments from WHO, CDC, and ECDC rate global and U.S. risk as very low due to surveillance, isolation protocols, and absence of sustained international transmission. Historical patterns show Ebola outbreaks rarely escalate beyond localized epidemics without major lapses in response. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected exportation to high-mobility areas, mutations enhancing airborne potential, or overwhelmed health systems allowing wider seeding before vaccines or treatments scale.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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