Trader consensus on a 96.3% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the regionally contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in northeastern DRC and parts of Uganda. As of mid-August, confirmed cases exceed 4,500 with over 2,100 deaths, prompting a WHO public health emergency declaration, yet transmission remains limited to affected African zones without sustained exportation to other continents. Official surveillance from CDC and WHO shows effective contact tracing and isolation measures curbing wider dissemination, consistent with prior Bundibugyo incidents that were contained. While model projections highlight risks from conflict zones or lapses in response, current epidemiological data indicate low likelihood of meeting pandemic criteria of global spread. New case reports or cross-border detections in coming weeks represent the main variables that could shift sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% 確率
$691,757 Vol.
$691,757 Vol.
2026/12/31
4% 確率
$691,757 Vol.
$691,757 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 96.3% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the regionally contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in northeastern DRC and parts of Uganda. As of mid-August, confirmed cases exceed 4,500 with over 2,100 deaths, prompting a WHO public health emergency declaration, yet transmission remains limited to affected African zones without sustained exportation to other continents. Official surveillance from CDC and WHO shows effective contact tracing and isolation measures curbing wider dissemination, consistent with prior Bundibugyo incidents that were contained. While model projections highlight risks from conflict zones or lapses in response, current epidemiological data indicate low likelihood of meeting pandemic criteria of global spread. New case reports or cross-border detections in coming weeks represent the main variables that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
音量
$691,757終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 96.3% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the regionally contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in northeastern DRC and parts of Uganda. As of mid-August, confirmed cases exceed 4,500 with over 2,100 deaths, prompting a WHO public health emergency declaration, yet transmission remains limited to affected African zones without sustained exportation to other continents. Official surveillance from CDC and WHO shows effective contact tracing and isolation measures curbing wider dissemination, consistent with prior Bundibugyo incidents that were contained. While model projections highlight risks from conflict zones or lapses in response, current epidemiological data indicate low likelihood of meeting pandemic criteria of global spread. New case reports or cross-border detections in coming weeks represent the main variables that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$691,757終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 96.3% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the regionally contained Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in northeastern DRC and parts of Uganda. As of mid-August, confirmed cases exceed 4,500 with over 2,100 deaths, prompting a WHO public health emergency declaration, yet transmission remains limited to affected African zones without sustained exportation to other continents. Official surveillance from CDC and WHO shows effective contact tracing and isolation measures curbing wider dissemination, consistent with prior Bundibugyo incidents that were contained. While model projections highlight risks from conflict zones or lapses in response, current epidemiological data indicate low likelihood of meeting pandemic criteria of global spread. New case reports or cross-border detections in coming weeks represent the main variables that could shift sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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