Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention since March 2025 on charges including leading a criminal organization, bribery, and tender rigging in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality case involving 414 defendants. As of August 2026, the second session of hearings resumed in Silivri after a recess, with the court continuing his detention while releasing dozens of co-defendants and scheduling further defenses into September. Multiple prior custody reviews have upheld his status amid a complex indictment seeking over 2,000 years in potential penalties, separate diploma cancellation proceedings, and additional investigations. Ongoing procedural steps, the scale of the trial, and absence of any intervening court or executive action favoring release sustain the trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability against his release before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention since March 2025 on charges including leading a criminal organization, bribery, and tender rigging in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality case involving 414 defendants. As of August 2026, the second session of hearings resumed in Silivri after a recess, with the court continuing his detention while releasing dozens of co-defendants and scheduling further defenses into September. Multiple prior custody reviews have upheld his status amid a complex indictment seeking over 2,000 years in potential penalties, separate diploma cancellation proceedings, and additional investigations. Ongoing procedural steps, the scale of the trial, and absence of any intervening court or executive action favoring release sustain the trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability against his release before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
音量
$6,387終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention since March 2025 on charges including leading a criminal organization, bribery, and tender rigging in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality case involving 414 defendants. As of August 2026, the second session of hearings resumed in Silivri after a recess, with the court continuing his detention while releasing dozens of co-defendants and scheduling further defenses into September. Multiple prior custody reviews have upheld his status amid a complex indictment seeking over 2,000 years in potential penalties, separate diploma cancellation proceedings, and additional investigations. Ongoing procedural steps, the scale of the trial, and absence of any intervening court or executive action favoring release sustain the trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability against his release before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,387終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention since March 2025 on charges including leading a criminal organization, bribery, and tender rigging in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality case involving 414 defendants. As of August 2026, the second session of hearings resumed in Silivri after a recess, with the court continuing his detention while releasing dozens of co-defendants and scheduling further defenses into September. Multiple prior custody reviews have upheld his status amid a complex indictment seeking over 2,000 years in potential penalties, separate diploma cancellation proceedings, and additional investigations. Ongoing procedural steps, the scale of the trial, and absence of any intervening court or executive action favoring release sustain the trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability against his release before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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