Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 96.6% implied probability for The Elder Scrolls VI releasing by December 31, 2026, driven by Bethesda Game Studios' official confirmation of pre-production status on their site and Todd Howard's February 2026 interviews emphasizing it's "going to be a while yet" after an premature 2018 teaser. With active development only ramping up post-Starfield in 2023, the studio's historical 5–8-year cycles for open-world epics like Skyrim (2011) and Fallout 4 (2015) leave scant time for completion, polish, and launch within seven months. No previews, platforms, or windows have surfaced, solidifying trader confidence. Realistic upsets—such as a shock early access reveal at Summer Game Fest or Xbox Showcase—remain improbable given the early dev stage and Microsoft's slate priorities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?
新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 96.6% implied probability for The Elder Scrolls VI releasing by December 31, 2026, driven by Bethesda Game Studios' official confirmation of pre-production status on their site and Todd Howard's February 2026 interviews emphasizing it's "going to be a while yet" after an premature 2018 teaser. With active development only ramping up post-Starfield in 2023, the studio's historical 5–8-year cycles for open-world epics like Skyrim (2011) and Fallout 4 (2015) leave scant time for completion, polish, and launch within seven months. No previews, platforms, or windows have surfaced, solidifying trader confidence. Realistic upsets—such as a shock early access reveal at Summer Game Fest or Xbox Showcase—remain improbable given the early dev stage and Microsoft's slate priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
マーケット開始日： Mar 18, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
音量
$1,237終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 18, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 96.6% implied probability for The Elder Scrolls VI releasing by December 31, 2026, driven by Bethesda Game Studios' official confirmation of pre-production status on their site and Todd Howard's February 2026 interviews emphasizing it's "going to be a while yet" after an premature 2018 teaser. With active development only ramping up post-Starfield in 2023, the studio's historical 5–8-year cycles for open-world epics like Skyrim (2011) and Fallout 4 (2015) leave scant time for completion, polish, and launch within seven months. No previews, platforms, or windows have surfaced, solidifying trader confidence. Realistic upsets—such as a shock early access reveal at Summer Game Fest or Xbox Showcase—remain improbable given the early dev stage and Microsoft's slate priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
音量
$1,237終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 18, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 96.6% implied probability for The Elder Scrolls VI releasing by December 31, 2026, driven by Bethesda Game Studios' official confirmation of pre-production status on their site and Todd Howard's February 2026 interviews emphasizing it's "going to be a while yet" after an premature 2018 teaser. With active development only ramping up post-Starfield in 2023, the studio's historical 5–8-year cycles for open-world epics like Skyrim (2011) and Fallout 4 (2015) leave scant time for completion, polish, and launch within seven months. No previews, platforms, or windows have surfaced, solidifying trader confidence. Realistic upsets—such as a shock early access reveal at Summer Game Fest or Xbox Showcase—remain improbable given the early dev stage and Microsoft's slate priorities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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