Mount Etna’s 2026 activity has featured repeated short-lived Strombolian episodes at Voragine, Northeast Crater, and new flank vents, with lava flows into Valle del Bove and ash plumes reaching 7 km, yet recent INGV data show rapidly declining volcanic tremor, pauses in effusion, and only weak ash emissions as of late August. Trader sentiment favoring “No” at 53% reflects Etna’s pattern of frequent but mostly VEI 0–1 events this year, despite persistent unrest on the unstable eastern flank. Key uncertainties include variable magma supply, degassing rates, and whether flank slip or renewed pressurization will drive sustained explosive columns meeting VEI 2 thresholds. Upcoming INGV weekly bulletins, seismic-infrasound trends, and gas-flux measurements will likely clarify if activity intensifies before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s 2026 activity has featured repeated short-lived Strombolian episodes at Voragine, Northeast Crater, and new flank vents, with lava flows into Valle del Bove and ash plumes reaching 7 km, yet recent INGV data show rapidly declining volcanic tremor, pauses in effusion, and only weak ash emissions as of late August. Trader sentiment favoring “No” at 53% reflects Etna’s pattern of frequent but mostly VEI 0–1 events this year, despite persistent unrest on the unstable eastern flank. Key uncertainties include variable magma supply, degassing rates, and whether flank slip or renewed pressurization will drive sustained explosive columns meeting VEI 2 thresholds. Upcoming INGV weekly bulletins, seismic-infrasound trends, and gas-flux measurements will likely clarify if activity intensifies before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
マーケット開始日： Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
音量
$21終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s 2026 activity has featured repeated short-lived Strombolian episodes at Voragine, Northeast Crater, and new flank vents, with lava flows into Valle del Bove and ash plumes reaching 7 km, yet recent INGV data show rapidly declining volcanic tremor, pauses in effusion, and only weak ash emissions as of late August. Trader sentiment favoring “No” at 53% reflects Etna’s pattern of frequent but mostly VEI 0–1 events this year, despite persistent unrest on the unstable eastern flank. Key uncertainties include variable magma supply, degassing rates, and whether flank slip or renewed pressurization will drive sustained explosive columns meeting VEI 2 thresholds. Upcoming INGV weekly bulletins, seismic-infrasound trends, and gas-flux measurements will likely clarify if activity intensifies before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
音量
$21終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna’s 2026 activity has featured repeated short-lived Strombolian episodes at Voragine, Northeast Crater, and new flank vents, with lava flows into Valle del Bove and ash plumes reaching 7 km, yet recent INGV data show rapidly declining volcanic tremor, pauses in effusion, and only weak ash emissions as of late August. Trader sentiment favoring “No” at 53% reflects Etna’s pattern of frequent but mostly VEI 0–1 events this year, despite persistent unrest on the unstable eastern flank. Key uncertainties include variable magma supply, degassing rates, and whether flank slip or renewed pressurization will drive sustained explosive columns meeting VEI 2 thresholds. Upcoming INGV weekly bulletins, seismic-infrasound trends, and gas-flux measurements will likely clarify if activity intensifies before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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