A rapidly strengthening Super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +1.8°C and models projecting a peak exceeding +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant influence on early-season snowfall timing. NOAA assigns greater than 90% probability of a very strong event this fall and winter, shifting the Pacific jet stream southward and favoring drier, warmer conditions across the northern U.S. and Canada while enhancing precipitation potential farther south. This pattern typically delays first measurable snow (≥0.1 inch) in northern plains and Great Lakes cities relative to climatological medians, while increasing early September chances at high-elevation Rocky Mountain sites in Montana, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Upcoming CPC seasonal outlooks and weekly ENSO updates will refine model consensus on jet stream positioning and cold-air intrusions that could trigger the initial events.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年シーズン初雪

10月31日までのニューヨーク州バッファロー
50%

デンバー(コロラド州)10月31日まで
51%

ミネアポリス(ミネソタ州) 10月31日まで
51%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ:10月31日まで
50%

ボストン(マサチューセッツ州) 11月15日まで
50%

ニューヨーク州バッファロー 11月15日まで
51%

イリノイ州シカゴ 11月15日まで
50%

デンバー(コロラド州) 11月15日まで
51%

11月15日までにデトロイト(ミシガン州)
50%

インディアナポリス(IN)11月15日まで
51%

カンザスシティ(ミズーリ州)11月15日まで
51%

ミネアポリス(MN) 11月15日まで
51%

ペンシルベニア州ピッツバーグ 11月15日まで
51%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ 11月15日まで
51%

マサチューセッツ州ボストン 11月30日まで
51%

ニューヨーク州バッファロー 11月30日まで
96%

イリノイ州シカゴ 11月30日まで
51%

11月30日までにオハイオ州シンシナティ
51%

テキサス州ダラス 11月30日まで
50%

コロラド州デンバー 11月30日まで
51%

デトロイト(ミシガン州) 11月30日まで
50%

インディアナポリス(IN) 11月30日まで
51%

ミズーリ州カンザスシティ(11月30日まで)
51%

ミネアポリス(ミネソタ州)、11月30日まで
51%

ナッシュビル(テネシー州)11月30日まで
51%

ニューヨーク市(NY)11月30日まで
51%

11月30日までのフィラデルフィア(PA)
51%

11月30日までにペンシルベニア州ピッツバーグ
51%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ 11月30日まで
51%

セントルイス(ミズーリ州)11月30日まで
51%

ワシントンD.C.(11月30日まで)
50%
$0.00 Vol.

10月31日までのニューヨーク州バッファロー
50%

デンバー(コロラド州)10月31日まで
51%

ミネアポリス(ミネソタ州) 10月31日まで
51%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ:10月31日まで
50%

ボストン(マサチューセッツ州) 11月15日まで
50%

ニューヨーク州バッファロー 11月15日まで
51%

イリノイ州シカゴ 11月15日まで
50%

デンバー(コロラド州) 11月15日まで
51%

11月15日までにデトロイト(ミシガン州)
50%

インディアナポリス(IN)11月15日まで
51%

カンザスシティ(ミズーリ州)11月15日まで
51%

ミネアポリス(MN) 11月15日まで
51%

ペンシルベニア州ピッツバーグ 11月15日まで
51%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ 11月15日まで
51%

マサチューセッツ州ボストン 11月30日まで
51%

ニューヨーク州バッファロー 11月30日まで
96%

イリノイ州シカゴ 11月30日まで
51%

11月30日までにオハイオ州シンシナティ
51%

テキサス州ダラス 11月30日まで
50%

コロラド州デンバー 11月30日まで
51%

デトロイト(ミシガン州) 11月30日まで
50%

インディアナポリス(IN) 11月30日まで
51%

ミズーリ州カンザスシティ(11月30日まで)
51%

ミネアポリス(ミネソタ州)、11月30日まで
51%

ナッシュビル(テネシー州)11月30日まで
51%

ニューヨーク市(NY)11月30日まで
51%

11月30日までのフィラデルフィア(PA)
51%

11月30日までにペンシルベニア州ピッツバーグ
51%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ 11月30日まで
51%

セントルイス(ミズーリ州)11月30日まで
51%

ワシントンD.C.(11月30日まで)
50%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
マーケット開始日: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
A rapidly strengthening Super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +1.8°C and models projecting a peak exceeding +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant influence on early-season snowfall timing. NOAA assigns greater than 90% probability of a very strong event this fall and winter, shifting the Pacific jet stream southward and favoring drier, warmer conditions across the northern U.S. and Canada while enhancing precipitation potential farther south. This pattern typically delays first measurable snow (≥0.1 inch) in northern plains and Great Lakes cities relative to climatological medians, while increasing early September chances at high-elevation Rocky Mountain sites in Montana, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Upcoming CPC seasonal outlooks and weekly ENSO updates will refine model consensus on jet stream positioning and cold-air intrusions that could trigger the initial events.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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