**Traders assign an 88.9% implied probability that Graham Platner will not face criminal charges by August 31, 2026.** This reflects the lack of any known active criminal investigation or formal proceedings following a July 2026 sexual assault allegation by a former girlfriend stemming from a 2021 incident. Platner has consistently denied the claims, which surfaced publicly around July 6 and prompted his withdrawal from the Maine U.S. Senate race days later. No official announcements, indictments, arrests, or statements from prosecutors in Maine have emerged in the subsequent weeks to indicate imminent charging. Reports from mid-July explicitly noted the absence of a known criminal investigation, and the roughly six-week gap since the allegation without escalation supports the market's assessment. The short window remaining before the resolution date further reduces the chance of charges materializing absent new, rapidly advancing developments.