The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026 following modest nonfarm payroll gains of around 115,000 that month, reflecting a labor market that has cooled from its post-pandemic tightness but remains near the natural rate. Recent Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts anticipate the rate climbing toward 4.5 to 4.8 percent by year-end, driven by slower hiring momentum, declining labor-force participation, and downside risks from elevated policy uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the June employment report and subsequent FOMC decisions on the federal funds rate, which could influence borrowing costs and corporate hiring. Trader sentiment on the peak 2026 level thus hinges on whether payroll trends stay above breakeven thresholds or deteriorate further amid moderating inflation and potential fiscal shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$388,693 Vol.
2026/01/10
5.0%
28%
5.5%
14%
6.0%
13%
7.0%
10%
10.0%
5%
$388,693 Vol.
5.0%
$102,277 Vol.
28%
5.5%
$186,719 Vol.
14%
6.0%
$52,180 Vol.
13%
7.0%
$21,511 Vol.
10%
10.0%
$26,006 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026 following modest nonfarm payroll gains of around 115,000 that month, reflecting a labor market that has cooled from its post-pandemic tightness but remains near the natural rate. Recent Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts anticipate the rate climbing toward 4.5 to 4.8 percent by year-end, driven by slower hiring momentum, declining labor-force participation, and downside risks from elevated policy uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the June employment report and subsequent FOMC decisions on the federal funds rate, which could influence borrowing costs and corporate hiring. Trader sentiment on the peak 2026 level thus hinges on whether payroll trends stay above breakeven thresholds or deteriorate further amid moderating inflation and potential fiscal shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$388,693終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026 following modest nonfarm payroll gains of around 115,000 that month, reflecting a labor market that has cooled from its post-pandemic tightness but remains near the natural rate. Recent Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts anticipate the rate climbing toward 4.5 to 4.8 percent by year-end, driven by slower hiring momentum, declining labor-force participation, and downside risks from elevated policy uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the June employment report and subsequent FOMC decisions on the federal funds rate, which could influence borrowing costs and corporate hiring. Trader sentiment on the peak 2026 level thus hinges on whether payroll trends stay above breakeven thresholds or deteriorate further amid moderating inflation and potential fiscal shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$388,693終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026 following modest nonfarm payroll gains of around 115,000 that month, reflecting a labor market that has cooled from its post-pandemic tightness but remains near the natural rate. Recent Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts anticipate the rate climbing toward 4.5 to 4.8 percent by year-end, driven by slower hiring momentum, declining labor-force participation, and downside risks from elevated policy uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the June employment report and subsequent FOMC decisions on the federal funds rate, which could influence borrowing costs and corporate hiring. Trader sentiment on the peak 2026 level thus hinges on whether payroll trends stay above breakeven thresholds or deteriorate further amid moderating inflation and potential fiscal shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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