Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have produced persistent high wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and driving the current market-implied odds of 1-3 hurricanes at 62.5% and zero at 35%. As of mid-September, five named tropical storms have formed but none reached hurricane strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher), setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane. Accumulated cyclone energy stands at roughly 7% of normal, and NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook assigns a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall, with a 70% confidence range of 2-6 hurricanes. While October and November remain, the post-peak timing and hostile atmospheric environment limit prospects for rapid catch-up development.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年の大西洋ハリケーンシーズンには何回のハリケーンが発生しますか？
2026年の大西洋ハリケーンシーズンには何回のハリケーンが発生しますか？
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.5%
7+ <1%
$31,080 Vol.
$31,080 Vol.
2026/12/31
0
35%
1-3
63%
4-6
3%
7+
<1%
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.5%
7+ <1%
$31,080 Vol.
$31,080 Vol.
2026/12/31
0
$16,790 Vol.
35%
1-3
$5,372 Vol.
63%
4-6
$6,694 Vol.
3%
7+
$2,224 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have produced persistent high wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and driving the current market-implied odds of 1-3 hurricanes at 62.5% and zero at 35%. As of mid-September, five named tropical storms have formed but none reached hurricane strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher), setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane. Accumulated cyclone energy stands at roughly 7% of normal, and NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook assigns a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall, with a 70% confidence range of 2-6 hurricanes. While October and November remain, the post-peak timing and hostile atmospheric environment limit prospects for rapid catch-up development.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
マーケット開始日： Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
音量
$31,080終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have produced persistent high wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and driving the current market-implied odds of 1-3 hurricanes at 62.5% and zero at 35%. As of mid-September, five named tropical storms have formed but none reached hurricane strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher), setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane. Accumulated cyclone energy stands at roughly 7% of normal, and NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook assigns a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall, with a 70% confidence range of 2-6 hurricanes. While October and November remain, the post-peak timing and hostile atmospheric environment limit prospects for rapid catch-up development.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
音量
$31,080終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have produced persistent high wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and driving the current market-implied odds of 1-3 hurricanes at 62.5% and zero at 35%. As of mid-September, five named tropical storms have formed but none reached hurricane strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher), setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane. Accumulated cyclone energy stands at roughly 7% of normal, and NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook assigns a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall, with a 70% confidence range of 2-6 hurricanes. While October and November remain, the post-peak timing and hostile atmospheric environment limit prospects for rapid catch-up development.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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