Imran Khan remains incarcerated in Adiala Jail under multiple corruption convictions handed down since 2023, with appeals pending before higher courts and no suspension of sentences in the principal cases. Government statements emphasize that any relief must come through the judiciary rather than political negotiations, while the military establishment shows little incentive to facilitate his return given his continued popularity and refusal to accept conditions such as political silence. Recent Supreme Court orders addressed medical treatment and family access but produced only temporary hospital transfers before his return to prison; PTI’s planned September march and opposition calls for release have not altered the legal timeline. With roughly three months left until the December 31, 2026 cutoff and no breakthrough in appeals or settlements, traders assign a high probability against release.