Louisiana's Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral results, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee in the 2026 Senate race. Incumbent Bill Cassidy lost the May primary to Rep. Julia Letlow, who secured Trump's endorsement and advanced past state Treasurer John Fleming in the June runoff, while Democrat Jamie Davis emerged from a low-profile primary. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure in the state. With the November general election approaching, factors that could still shift implied probabilities include significant late-campaign developments such as scandals involving the Republican nominee, unexpected national political realignments, or unusually high Democratic mobilization in urban parishes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$26,261 Vol.
$26,261 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$26,261 Vol.
$26,261 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$9,532 Vol.
93%
民主党
$16,729 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Louisiana's Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral results, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee in the 2026 Senate race. Incumbent Bill Cassidy lost the May primary to Rep. Julia Letlow, who secured Trump's endorsement and advanced past state Treasurer John Fleming in the June runoff, while Democrat Jamie Davis emerged from a low-profile primary. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure in the state. With the November general election approaching, factors that could still shift implied probabilities include significant late-campaign developments such as scandals involving the Republican nominee, unexpected national political realignments, or unusually high Democratic mobilization in urban parishes.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
音量
$26,261終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Louisiana's Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral results, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee in the 2026 Senate race. Incumbent Bill Cassidy lost the May primary to Rep. Julia Letlow, who secured Trump's endorsement and advanced past state Treasurer John Fleming in the June runoff, while Democrat Jamie Davis emerged from a low-profile primary. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure in the state. With the November general election approaching, factors that could still shift implied probabilities include significant late-campaign developments such as scandals involving the Republican nominee, unexpected national political realignments, or unusually high Democratic mobilization in urban parishes.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$26,261終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral results, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee in the 2026 Senate race. Incumbent Bill Cassidy lost the May primary to Rep. Julia Letlow, who secured Trump's endorsement and advanced past state Treasurer John Fleming in the June runoff, while Democrat Jamie Davis emerged from a low-profile primary. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure in the state. With the November general election approaching, factors that could still shift implied probabilities include significant late-campaign developments such as scandals involving the Republican nominee, unexpected national political realignments, or unusually high Democratic mobilization in urban parishes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問