The extreme rarity of perfect games in MLB history underpins the 92.5% implied probability that none will occur in 2026. Only 24 have been recorded across more than 150 seasons and 240,000-plus games, with extended droughts common even during periods of elevated frequency. In the ongoing 2026 campaign, multiple high-profile bids have already fallen short due to late errors, walks, or defensive miscues, mirroring patterns seen in recent years. Factors such as expanded bullpen usage, specialized relievers, and defensive shifts further reduce the likelihood of a starter completing 27 consecutive outs without a baserunner. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for these structural barriers while leaving room for the occasional outlier performance.