Magnus Carlsen’s status as world number one and seven-time Norway Chess champion anchors his 64.5% implied probability, reinforced by strong recent classical results including victories in the 2026 Chess.com Open and FIDE Freestyle World Championship. The field of six elite grandmasters—featuring current world champion Gukesh Dommaraju, rising talents Alireza Firouzja and Vincent Keymer, along with Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu and consistent performer Wesley So—competes in a double round-robin with Armageddon tiebreaks in Oslo from May 25 to June 5. Keymer’s rapid rating climb to fourth globally and Firouzja’s prior runner-up finishes support their secondary market shares, while the Indian duo’s youthful momentum and So’s steady elite presence keep their probabilities competitive yet lower. Home advantage and Carlsen’s historical edge in the event continue to shape trader consensus ahead of the May start.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Magnus Carlsen 65%
Vincent Keymer 13%
Alireza Firouzja 12%
Gukesh Dommaraju 10%
Magnus Carlsen
65%
Vincent Keymer
13%
Alireza Firouzja
12%
Gukesh Dommaraju
10%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
9%
Wesley So
9%
Magnus Carlsen 65%
Vincent Keymer 13%
Alireza Firouzja 12%
Gukesh Dommaraju 10%
Magnus Carlsen
65%
Vincent Keymer
13%
Alireza Firouzja
12%
Gukesh Dommaraju
10%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
9%
Wesley So
9%
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the Norway Chess 2026 tournament per the rules provided by the event organizer, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the Norway Chess 2026 tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the event organizer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 11, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the Norway Chess 2026 tournament per the rules provided by the event organizer, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the Norway Chess 2026 tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the event organizer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Magnus Carlsen’s status as world number one and seven-time Norway Chess champion anchors his 64.5% implied probability, reinforced by strong recent classical results including victories in the 2026 Chess.com Open and FIDE Freestyle World Championship. The field of six elite grandmasters—featuring current world champion Gukesh Dommaraju, rising talents Alireza Firouzja and Vincent Keymer, along with Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu and consistent performer Wesley So—competes in a double round-robin with Armageddon tiebreaks in Oslo from May 25 to June 5. Keymer’s rapid rating climb to fourth globally and Firouzja’s prior runner-up finishes support their secondary market shares, while the Indian duo’s youthful momentum and So’s steady elite presence keep their probabilities competitive yet lower. Home advantage and Carlsen’s historical edge in the event continue to shape trader consensus ahead of the May start.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問