Low implied volatility, with the VIX holding near 14.5 as of mid-August 2026 after trading in a tight 13.4–15.5 range recently, underpins the 86% market-implied odds against a NYSE market-wide circuit breaker before 2027. The S&P 500 has avoided the 7% single-day threshold since narrowly missing it amid April 2025 tariff-related swings, and no Level 1, 2, or 3 halts have occurred in 2026 amid steady equity performance and contained macro risks. With only four-plus months remaining until year-end, absent major policy shocks or earnings surprises that could spike realized volatility, trader consensus prices in limited downside tail risk over the near term.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$99,798 Vol.
$99,798 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
14% 確率
$99,798 Vol.
$99,798 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Low implied volatility, with the VIX holding near 14.5 as of mid-August 2026 after trading in a tight 13.4–15.5 range recently, underpins the 86% market-implied odds against a NYSE market-wide circuit breaker before 2027. The S&P 500 has avoided the 7% single-day threshold since narrowly missing it amid April 2025 tariff-related swings, and no Level 1, 2, or 3 halts have occurred in 2026 amid steady equity performance and contained macro risks. With only four-plus months remaining until year-end, absent major policy shocks or earnings surprises that could spike realized volatility, trader consensus prices in limited downside tail risk over the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
音量
$99,798終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Low implied volatility, with the VIX holding near 14.5 as of mid-August 2026 after trading in a tight 13.4–15.5 range recently, underpins the 86% market-implied odds against a NYSE market-wide circuit breaker before 2027. The S&P 500 has avoided the 7% single-day threshold since narrowly missing it amid April 2025 tariff-related swings, and no Level 1, 2, or 3 halts have occurred in 2026 amid steady equity performance and contained macro risks. With only four-plus months remaining until year-end, absent major policy shocks or earnings surprises that could spike realized volatility, trader consensus prices in limited downside tail risk over the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$99,798終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Low implied volatility, with the VIX holding near 14.5 as of mid-August 2026 after trading in a tight 13.4–15.5 range recently, underpins the 86% market-implied odds against a NYSE market-wide circuit breaker before 2027. The S&P 500 has avoided the 7% single-day threshold since narrowly missing it amid April 2025 tariff-related swings, and no Level 1, 2, or 3 halts have occurred in 2026 amid steady equity performance and contained macro risks. With only four-plus months remaining until year-end, absent major policy shocks or earnings surprises that could spike realized volatility, trader consensus prices in limited downside tail risk over the near term.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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