Recent U.S. equity stability and subdued volatility underpin the 86% market-implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker through year-end. The S&P 500 has avoided 7% intraday drops since the 2025 tariff-related swings peaked below the Level 1 threshold, while the VIX remains near historical medians amid solid GDP expansion, steady job gains, and contained unemployment. The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% despite three dissents signals measured policy that supports risk appetite without fueling extreme moves. With no major earnings season shocks or geopolitical escalations on the immediate horizon, traders price only modest tail risk of a sharp reversal before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$99,798 Vol.
$99,798 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
14% 確率
$99,798 Vol.
$99,798 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S. equity stability and subdued volatility underpin the 86% market-implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker through year-end. The S&P 500 has avoided 7% intraday drops since the 2025 tariff-related swings peaked below the Level 1 threshold, while the VIX remains near historical medians amid solid GDP expansion, steady job gains, and contained unemployment. The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% despite three dissents signals measured policy that supports risk appetite without fueling extreme moves. With no major earnings season shocks or geopolitical escalations on the immediate horizon, traders price only modest tail risk of a sharp reversal before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
音量
$99,798終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S. equity stability and subdued volatility underpin the 86% market-implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker through year-end. The S&P 500 has avoided 7% intraday drops since the 2025 tariff-related swings peaked below the Level 1 threshold, while the VIX remains near historical medians amid solid GDP expansion, steady job gains, and contained unemployment. The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% despite three dissents signals measured policy that supports risk appetite without fueling extreme moves. With no major earnings season shocks or geopolitical escalations on the immediate horizon, traders price only modest tail risk of a sharp reversal before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$99,798終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. equity stability and subdued volatility underpin the 86% market-implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker through year-end. The S&P 500 has avoided 7% intraday drops since the 2025 tariff-related swings peaked below the Level 1 threshold, while the VIX remains near historical medians amid solid GDP expansion, steady job gains, and contained unemployment. The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% despite three dissents signals measured policy that supports risk appetite without fueling extreme moves. With no major earnings season shocks or geopolitical escalations on the immediate horizon, traders price only modest tail risk of a sharp reversal before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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