A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already near +2.8 °C in September 2026 and models projecting a peak above +3 °C, is the dominant driver pushing October 2026 global temperatures toward record or near-record levels. This event adds substantial heat to the atmosphere with a lag of several months, building on the long-term warming trend and exceptionally warm ocean baselines. Ensemble forecasts place the expected October anomaly around +0.84 °C, just below the 2023 record of +0.85 °C, with model spreads and potential steering influences creating roughly even odds among first-, second-, or third-hottest outcomes. Updated seasonal model runs and early October observations will refine the ranking probabilities.