Jahmyr Gibbs leads the Polymarket field at 24.5% implied probability after a Week 1 bell-cow performance of 29 carries, 156 yards, and two rushing touchdowns in Detroit’s high-volume offense, where he has assumed the primary role following roster changes. Derrick Henry sits at 14.5% after opening with 24 carries, 144 yards, and three scores for Baltimore, demonstrating sustained goal-line efficiency at age 32. The tightly bunched probabilities reflect a competitive landscape where backs such as Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker III, and Javonte Williams operate in run-heavy schemes with strong red-zone opportunities, while dual-threat quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts siphon short-yardage work. Early-season injuries, committee approaches, and offensive line play keep outcomes fluid across the league’s 17-game slate.