Incumbent Republican Mike Rounds holds a commanding position in the 2026 South Dakota Senate race, reflected in the 94% Republican outcome priced by traders. The state's consistent Republican voting patterns since 2008, combined with Rounds' easy primary victory and substantial fundraising lead, anchor this consensus. Recent withdrawal by the Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion on August 4 leaves only an independent challenger, further consolidating support. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or unexpected national shift could narrow the margin, though historical base rates in similar states suggest limited realistic paths for an upset before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$10,184 Vol.
$10,184 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
3%
$10,184 Vol.
$10,184 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$5,711 Vol.
94%
民主党
$4,473 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Mike Rounds holds a commanding position in the 2026 South Dakota Senate race, reflected in the 94% Republican outcome priced by traders. The state's consistent Republican voting patterns since 2008, combined with Rounds' easy primary victory and substantial fundraising lead, anchor this consensus. Recent withdrawal by the Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion on August 4 leaves only an independent challenger, further consolidating support. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or unexpected national shift could narrow the margin, though historical base rates in similar states suggest limited realistic paths for an upset before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$10,184終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Mike Rounds holds a commanding position in the 2026 South Dakota Senate race, reflected in the 94% Republican outcome priced by traders. The state's consistent Republican voting patterns since 2008, combined with Rounds' easy primary victory and substantial fundraising lead, anchor this consensus. Recent withdrawal by the Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion on August 4 leaves only an independent challenger, further consolidating support. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or unexpected national shift could narrow the margin, though historical base rates in similar states suggest limited realistic paths for an upset before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$10,184終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Rounds holds a commanding position in the 2026 South Dakota Senate race, reflected in the 94% Republican outcome priced by traders. The state's consistent Republican voting patterns since 2008, combined with Rounds' easy primary victory and substantial fundraising lead, anchor this consensus. Recent withdrawal by the Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion on August 4 leaves only an independent challenger, further consolidating support. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or unexpected national shift could narrow the margin, though historical base rates in similar states suggest limited realistic paths for an upset before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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