Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-vote threshold required to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct amendment. Opposition parties, led by the CHP, have declined to join drafting talks or provide support, while preparatory AKP commissions continue internal work without producing a cross-party consensus or parliamentary roadmap. Recent statements from the justice minister and parliament speaker have reiterated the long-term goal of replacing the 1982 charter, and PKK-related negotiations have been floated as a potential avenue for additional votes, yet no legislative breakthrough or formal referendum announcement has materialized by mid-September 2026. These persistent arithmetic and political constraints underpin traders’ strong consensus against meaningful movement on a new constitution this year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
9% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
9% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-vote threshold required to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct amendment. Opposition parties, led by the CHP, have declined to join drafting talks or provide support, while preparatory AKP commissions continue internal work without producing a cross-party consensus or parliamentary roadmap. Recent statements from the justice minister and parliament speaker have reiterated the long-term goal of replacing the 1982 charter, and PKK-related negotiations have been floated as a potential avenue for additional votes, yet no legislative breakthrough or formal referendum announcement has materialized by mid-September 2026. These persistent arithmetic and political constraints underpin traders’ strong consensus against meaningful movement on a new constitution this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
音量
$7,475終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-vote threshold required to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct amendment. Opposition parties, led by the CHP, have declined to join drafting talks or provide support, while preparatory AKP commissions continue internal work without producing a cross-party consensus or parliamentary roadmap. Recent statements from the justice minister and parliament speaker have reiterated the long-term goal of replacing the 1982 charter, and PKK-related negotiations have been floated as a potential avenue for additional votes, yet no legislative breakthrough or formal referendum announcement has materialized by mid-September 2026. These persistent arithmetic and political constraints underpin traders’ strong consensus against meaningful movement on a new constitution this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,475終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-vote threshold required to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct amendment. Opposition parties, led by the CHP, have declined to join drafting talks or provide support, while preparatory AKP commissions continue internal work without producing a cross-party consensus or parliamentary roadmap. Recent statements from the justice minister and parliament speaker have reiterated the long-term goal of replacing the 1982 charter, and PKK-related negotiations have been floated as a potential avenue for additional votes, yet no legislative breakthrough or formal referendum announcement has materialized by mid-September 2026. These persistent arithmetic and political constraints underpin traders’ strong consensus against meaningful movement on a new constitution this year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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