Islam Makhachev’s dominant capture of the UFC welterweight title in late 2025 via superior wrestling and control against Jack Della Maddalena has anchored trader consensus at an 80.5% implied probability he remains champion through 2026. His move up from lightweight, combined with an undefeated streak and two-division pedigree, creates a steep barrier for challengers. Recent statement wins by Carlos Prates, Ian Machado Garry, and Michael Morales have elevated their profiles and produced modest market share, yet none have closed the gap against the current champion’s experience and finishing ability. Historical patterns show established titleholders often retain belts across multiple defenses unless derailed by injury or an unexpected stylistic upset, factors the wisdom of crowds continues to price accordingly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日イスラム・マカチェフ 81%
カルロス・プラテス 19.9%
イアン・マチャド・ギャリー 6.6%
マイケル・モラレス 4.4%
$40,316 Vol.
$40,316 Vol.
イスラム・マカチェフ
81%
カルロス・プラテス
19%
イアン・マチャド・ギャリー
7%
マイケル・モラレス
4%
カマル・ウスマン
<1%
ショーン・ブレイディ
<1%
レオン・エドワーズ
<1%
ホアキン・バックリー
<1%
ベラル・ムハンマド
<1%
ジャック・デラ・マダレナ
<1%
シャフカット・ラフモノフ
<1%
イスラム・マカチェフ 81%
カルロス・プラテス 19.9%
イアン・マチャド・ギャリー 6.6%
マイケル・モラレス 4.4%
$40,316 Vol.
$40,316 Vol.
イスラム・マカチェフ
81%
カルロス・プラテス
19%
イアン・マチャド・ギャリー
7%
マイケル・モラレス
4%
カマル・ウスマン
<1%
ショーン・ブレイディ
<1%
レオン・エドワーズ
<1%
ホアキン・バックリー
<1%
ベラル・ムハンマド
<1%
ジャック・デラ・マダレナ
<1%
シャフカット・ラフモノフ
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
マーケット開始日: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Islam Makhachev’s dominant capture of the UFC welterweight title in late 2025 via superior wrestling and control against Jack Della Maddalena has anchored trader consensus at an 80.5% implied probability he remains champion through 2026. His move up from lightweight, combined with an undefeated streak and two-division pedigree, creates a steep barrier for challengers. Recent statement wins by Carlos Prates, Ian Machado Garry, and Michael Morales have elevated their profiles and produced modest market share, yet none have closed the gap against the current champion’s experience and finishing ability. Historical patterns show established titleholders often retain belts across multiple defenses unless derailed by injury or an unexpected stylistic upset, factors the wisdom of crowds continues to price accordingly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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