Carlos Alcaraz’s ongoing wrist injury, which has sidelined the defending champion since the Barcelona Open in April, remains the dominant factor keeping the U.S. Open participation market near even odds. His official inclusion on the 2026 entry list supports a realistic chance of return, yet the recent withdrawal from the Cincinnati Open—a key hard-court tune-up—has introduced fresh uncertainty about full fitness ahead of the late-August start in New York. Traders weigh the four-month absence and lack of recent match play against the possibility of medical clearance in the coming weeks, with any confirmed practice sessions or positive recovery updates likely to shift implied probabilities quickly in either direction.